…Nigeria’s smaller modular refining industry delivered only a limited contribution to the downstream market.
WED AUG 26 2026-theGBJournal| Petrol supply from domestic refineries fell sharply in July, while imports increased, underscoring the fragile state of Nigeria’s push to end its dependence on imported fuel.
Meanwhile, all three refineries operated by Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited remaining out of production in July, according to the latest statistics from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) seen by the G&B Journal.
The Port Harcourt Refining and Petrochemical Company was listed as “shut down” for a second consecutive month, while the Warri and Kaduna refineries were classified as “not producing” in the NMDPRA’s July 2026 midstream and downstream statistics.
The figures expose a sharp disconnect between Nigeria’s ambition to build domestic refining capacity and the reality of its fuel supply chain.
At a time when the government is seeking to reduce reliance on imported petroleum products, the country’s domestic petrol supply fell by about 21 per cent in July to 25.8mn litres a day, according to NMDPRA data. Petrol imports, by contrast, rose 9 per cent to 19.7mn litres a day.
That shift meant imports supplied an increasingly important share of the petrol market even as overall receipts declined to 45.5mn litres a day from 50.6mn litres in June. National petrol consumption also fell sharply, by 25 per cent to 35.7mn litres a day.
The weakness is not confined to the three NNPCL plants. Nigeria’s smaller modular refining industry delivered only a limited contribution to the downstream market.
The NMDPRA presentation shows WalterSmith operating at 70.42 per cent average capacity utilisation, Edo Refinery at 95.72 per cent and Aradel at 36.32 per cent.
OPAC operated at just 0.86 per cent, while Duport was shut down. Together, the operating modular refineries supplied an average of only 0.592mn litres of diesel a day during the month.
The contrast is particularly striking because the three state-owned refineries represent substantial installed capacity. Their continued inactivity leaves Nigeria heavily reliant on the handful of private and modular facilities that are operating, as well as imported products, to bridge the gap between domestic refining output and market demand.
Diesel offered a more positive picture. Average daily receipts of automotive gas oil rose 46 per cent in July to 23.6mn litres, although the improvement was driven significantly by imports: diesel imports increased from zero in June to 7.9mn litres a day in July.
The latest figures therefore complicate the narrative of a Nigerian downstream sector rapidly moving towards self-sufficiency.
The return of the Port Harcourt refinery had been presented as an important milestone in the government’s attempt to restore the country’s long-idle refining infrastructure.
Yet its continued shutdown, alongside the non-production status of Warri and Kaduna, suggests that restarting ageing state assets is proving considerably more difficult than announcing their rehabilitation.
Meanwhile, the private sector has become the critical swing factor in Nigeria’s fuel market.
The Dangote refinery has emerged as the country’s dominant domestic supplier of refined products, but the July data show that even with large-scale private refining capacity available, Nigeria’s supply system remains vulnerable to changes in refinery operations, crude availability and imports.
The latest NMDPRA numbers also highlight a deeper structural problem: having refining capacity on paper is not the same as having reliable refining capacity in operation.
For Nigeria, the economic stakes are significant. Every prolonged shutdown of a major refinery increases pressure on imported petroleum products, exposes the downstream market to international prices and foreign-exchange movements, and weakens the government’s broader ambition of transforming Nigeria from a crude exporter that imports fuel into a country capable of refining enough petroleum for its own market.
The July statistics suggest that ambition remains unfinished business.
With Port Harcourt still shut, Warri and Kaduna not producing, and modular plants operating at widely different utilisation rates, Nigeria’s refinery revival is yet to deliver the resilient, diversified domestic supply system policymakers have promised.
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