TUE JUNE 16 2026-theGBJournal| The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said Nigeria’s inflation outlook remains cautiously positive, arguing that easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a retreat in crude oil prices have created conditions for a gradual moderation in price pressures later this year.
According to the think tank, the recent diplomatic breakthrough in the region and the decline in crude prices from around $90 a barrel to about $83 a barrel provide grounds for guarded optimism.
”If tensions continue to subside and global supply chains stabilize, inflationary pressures could begin to ease from the third quarter of 2026,” the think-tank said.
CPPE noted that the recent rise in prices reflects external shocks and longstanding structural bottlenecks rather than signs of macroeconomic instability.
Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated for a third straight month to 15.93% in May from 15.69% in April, as higher oil prices, rising marine insurance costs, disruptions to shipping routes and more expensive imports filtered into domestic prices.
However, the pace of monthly price increases slowed, with headline inflation easing to 1.75% in May from 2.13% in April, while food inflation moderated to 2.98% from 3.63%, suggesting that price pressures are beginning to lose momentum.
The current inflation rate also remains sharply below the 26.06% recorded in May 2025, underscoring the extent of disinflation achieved over the past year.
CPPE maintained that Nigeria’s inflation problem is predominantly cost-push in nature, implying that further monetary tightening would have limited impact.
Instead, policymakers should focus on addressing structural drivers of production and distribution costs, including insecurity, food supply constraints, transportation expenses and energy prices.
The group urged the government to prioritize food security, improve logistics infrastructure, expand mass transit and rail networks, strengthen energy security and restore safety in farming communities to ease pressures on households and enhance business competitiveness.
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