SAT DEC 13 2025-theGBJournal| Collections from Value Added Tax (VAT) increased by 32.2% y/y to N2.06 trillion in Q2-25 (Q2-24: +99.8% y/y to N1.56 trillion), this is based on the recently released data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Analysts at Cordros Rsearch attribute the increase to the combined impact of resilient domestic consumption and higher consumer prices compared to 2024FY levels.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, VAT collections in Q2-25 were broadly flat, rising only 3bps (Q1-25: +6.0% q/q to N2.06 trillion).
The marginal uptick was supported by higher collections from foreign VAT (+1.1% q/q to N459.95 billion) and Nigerian Customs Service import VAT (+0.3% q/q to N508.55 billion), which offset a slight decline in local VAT collections (-0.7% q/q to N1.09 trillion).
While gradually improving consumer demand and still elevated inflation will continue to support VAT receipts, moderating price pressures and, the appreciation of the naira are expected to limit the pace of growth relative to prior years.
Overall, these factors point to a more moderate trajectory for VAT revenue growth in the near to medium term.
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