SAT JULY 05 2025-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s public debt rose by 3.3% q/q to N149.39 trillion in Q1-25 (Q4-24: N144.67 trillion), according to the Debt Management Office (DMO)
Notably, the total domestic debt stock (52.7% of total public debt) rose by 5.9% q/q to N78.76 trillion (Q4-24: N74.38 trillion), reflecting the increase in Federal government debt stock (6.4% q/q) amid a decline in debt stock for states and local government (2.5% q/q).
At the same time, total external debt stock (47.3% of the total public debt) increased by 0.4% q/q to USD45.98 billion (vs +6.4% q/q to US$45.78 billion in Q4-24), reflecting additional borrowings from the World Bank (US$427.20 million) and African Development Bank (US$83.22 million), amid IMF loan repayments (USD393.37 million).
In naira terms, total external debt rose by 0.5% q/q to N70.63 trillion (Q4-24: N70.29 trillion) using an average exchange rate value of N1,536.32/USD in Q1-25, compared to N1,535.32/USD in Q4-24.
On a year-on-year basis, total debt grew by 122.8%.
Cordros Research in their note theG&Bjournal, attributes the increases to new borrowings to finance rising government expenditures, given the persistent underperformance in revenue.
And looking ahead, Cordros says they expect total debt to spike further, primarily due to high government borrowings to fund the 2025 budget deficit (Cordros estimate: N16.47 trillion).
”We project total public debt to settle at NGN164.66 trillion (or 54.2% of GDP) in 2025E,” Cordros said.
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