…Exports of other petroleum products, refined products, and gas reached N7.73 trillion in Q2 2025, representing 34.21% of total exports
…Crude oil remained the cornerstone of Nigeria’s exports in Q2 2025, totaling N11.97 trillion and accounting for 52.60% of total export earnings.
…In Q2 ‘25, Spain emerged as Nigeria’s largest export destination, taking the lead from India who emerged first in Q1 ‘25, receiving goods worth N2.47 trillion and accounting for 10.85% of total exports
MON SEPT 22 2025-theGBJournal| According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) latest report on foreign trade statistics for Q2 ‘25, Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N7.46 trillion (about US$4.74 billion), its largest in nearly three years, as export growth outpaced import levels.
Total merchandise trade (exports + imports) reached N38.04 trillion (US$24.14 billion), up by 20.05% year-on-year and 5.59% quarter-on-quarter in naira terms, and 4.43% y/y and 1.01% q/q in dollar terms.
Exports rose by 10.45% q/q and 28.43% y/y, to N22.75 trillion (US$14.4 billion, 5.66% q/q in USD), while imports declined 0.90% q/q to N15.29 trillion (US$9.70 billion, -5.20% q/q in USD) though still 9.43% higher y/y.
Crude oil remained the cornerstone of Nigeria’s exports in Q2 2025, totaling N11.97 trillion and accounting for 52.60% of total export earnings.
Domestic production averaged 1.48 million barrels per day (excluding condensates) in Q2 ‘25, up from 1.33 million barrels per day recorded the same quarter of the corresponding year.
Despite this, crude oil exports fell, down 7.63% q/q and 5.10% y/y, reflecting the impact of foreign exchange dynamics.
This underscores Nigeria’s continued heavy reliance on crude oil for foreign exchange earnings and highlights the importance of further diversifying into other sources
such as Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and diaspora remittances to boost forex. inflows.
Exports of other petroleum products, refined products, and gas reached N7.73 trillion in Q2 2025, representing 34.21% of total exports and registering a strong 72.92% quarter-on-quarter growth.
This surge partly offset the 7.6% decline in crude oil exports during the same period.
The growth was supported not only by gradual improvements in domestic refining and
processing capacity but also by a weaker naira, which boosted the global price competitiveness of these products, driving stronger demand and higher export receipts.
Non-oil exports, including manufactured goods, agriculture, solid minerals, and processed goods, stood at N3.05 trillion in Q2 ‘25, accounting for 13.39% of total exports.
Although non-oil exports remain modest relative to oil, they increased 55.23% y/y (despite a 3.86% q/q dip), showing diversification is taking hold.
However, sustained policy consistency and stronger infrastructure support will be needed to scale up meaningfully.
Notably, manufactured goods which contributes about 3.53% to export surged by 67.2% year-on-year to N803.8 billion, with an even stronger quarter-on-quarter growth of 173.0%.
This sharp increase underscores the rising capacity of local manufacturers to produce for external markets, while the weaker naira has also made Nigerian products more competitive abroad, further boosting demand for these products by foreigners.
Total imports reached N15.29 trillion in Q2 ‘25, a slight decline of 0.90% from Q1 ‘25 but a 9.43% increase compared to Q2 ‘24. Imports remained high year on year, but broadly flat quarter-on-quarter.
Agricultural goods rose by 14.35% q/q and 32.60% y/y, while raw materials fell by 5.07% q/q but increased by 16.06% y/y. Manufactured goods recorded moderate growth of 4.94% q/q and 41.36% y/y.
This overall moderation across import categories contributed to a slight decline in aggregate import value, driven by elevated foreign exchange costs and CBN policies
reforms such as the Foreign Exchange (FX) Code launched in Jan 2025, designed to promote ethics, transparency and stronger risk management among participants in the foreign exchange market.
By category, machinery and equipment remained the largest import segment, accounting for 28.38% of total imports and expanding 6.91% q/q.
This reflects sustained demand for capital goods, industrial inputs, and transport equipment, underscoring manufacturers’ continued reliance on foreign suppliers to support domestic production in Nigeria.
Food and agricultural products, notably wheat and other staples, continue to represent a significant share of imports, making up 59.8% of total agricultural imports. Domestic production in many food products cannot at this point meet local demand, leaving Nigeria exposed to global food price fluctuations.
Nigeria’s trade balance strengthened significantly in Q2 ‘25, with a surplus of N7.46 trillion, up 44.31% from N5.17 trillion in Q1, as export earnings outpaced imports.
Robust export growth (+10.45% q/q; +28.43% y/y) against flat imports underpinned this improvement, marking the largest quarterly surplus since after the COVID period peaks and reversing years of tight trade balances.
This stronger position provides the government with more forex earnings and boosts investor confidence in Nigeria’s external sector.
However, the sustainability of these gains depends on diversifying away from oil; only a broader export base can reduce vulnerability to price shocks and ensure continued support for the Naira and foreign exchange reserves.
In Q2 ‘25, Spain emerged as Nigeria’s largest export destination, taking the lead from India who emerged first in Q1 ‘25, receiving goods worth N2.47 trillion and accounting for 10.85% of total exports.
Other key destinations included India (N1.98 trillion; 8.71%), France (N1.62 trillion; 7.13%), the Netherlands (N1.53 trillion; 6.75%) and Canada (N1.42 trillion; 6.27%).
Nigeria’s export profile is shifting, with Spain overtaking long-standing partners to become the top buyer in Q2 2025.
This highlights the EU’s continued importance and growing market diversification, boosting foreign exchange inflows and strengthening resilience against dependence on a single market.
On the import side, China remained Nigeria’s largest source of imports in Q2 ‘25, supplying goods worth N4.96 trillion (32.45% of total imports), mainly machinery and manufactured products.
It was followed by the United States (N2.15 trillion; 14.12%), India (N901 billion; 5.90%), the Netherlands (N606 billion; 3.97%) and the United Arab Emirates (N536 billion; 3.51%).
The concentration of imports from a few key markets such as China and the United States leaves Nigeria vulnerable to external shocks, as rising trade tensions, new tariffs, shipping disruptions, or global demand slowdowns could constrain its import flows.
Nigeria’s trade outlook remains exposed to risks such as volatile global oil prices and domestic volumes, which can sharply affect earnings, as well as foreign-exchange swings that impact both export competitiveness and import costs.
Imported inflation continues to feed into domestic prices, while infrastructure and logistics constraints, especially at ports and on transport corridors, remain bottlenecks.
According to the IMF’s July 2025 World Economic Outlook, global trade volume growth is projected to decelerate to 1.9% in 2026 (down from 2.6% in 2025), reflecting the unwinding of front-loading effects from the tariff disputes and persistent policy uncertainty.
To mitigate these challenges, policy should be focused towards accelerating export diversification by supporting manufacturing and agro-processing to grow non-oil exports, offer incentives for value addition in refining, solid minerals and agribusiness, and boost local production of raw materials to reduce import dependence.
Stability in trade and currency policies is critical to give exporters and importers predictability, alongside improvements in port efficiency, transport infrastructure and removal of non-tariff barriers.
Outlook – Sustaining surpluses amid global uncertainty
If current trends persist, Nigeria’s export earnings, particularly from non-oil sectors, are likely to strengthen further, helping to sustain the trade surplus and support foreign exchange reserves.
However, external shocks such as falling oil prices or a global demand slowdown could quickly reverse these gains.
The IMF warns that an escalation of protectionist measures—such as a return to higher U.S. tariff rates—could reduce global growth by roughly 0.2 percentage points in 2025, underscoring the vulnerability of emerging markets like Nigeria to trade policy shocks.
Sound domestic policies on exchange rates, trade tariffs, and industrial development will be critical to consolidating the current momentum and building a more resilient export base.-Analysis provided by Coronation Research
X-@theGBJournal|Facebook-the Government and Business Journal|email:gbj@govbusinessjournal.com|govandbusinessj@gmail.com
