SUN NOV 23 2025-theGBJournal| ”Recent developments suggest scope for a slightly deeper round of easing than the 50bps cut delivered in September,” says Cordros Research analysts ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The meeting is scheduled to hold on 24–25 November.
Domestically, inflation has decelerated more sharply, and FX liquidity has remained robust, with the naira showing strength on the back of the aforementioned.
”Given a more favourable macroeconomic backdrop, we expect the MPC to adopt a firmer easing bias and lower the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 100bps to 26.00%, while keeping other parameters constant,” Cordros said in a note to theG&BJournal.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has maintained a cautious posture on interest rate adjustments in previous meetings, despite persistent disinflation and naira stability.
This restraint, Cordros says, largely reflects the slow pace of inflation moderation alongside elevated global uncertainties, amplified by higher global tariffs and uneven risk sentiment.
Although the MPC, for the first time in over five years, initiated an easing cycle by cutting the MPR at the September policy meeting, the modest 50bps reduction and the Committee’s guarded tone underscored its aim to avoid premature policy relaxation.
However, the balance of risks has shifted meaningfully in recent months. For us, a more favourable global backdrop, faster domestic disinflation, and sustained naira appreciation collectively strengthen the case for a more decisive monetary easing stance.
”Given these improvements, we believe the MPC is now in a stronger position to extend the easing cycle and could opt for a 100bps cut in the MPR to support growth while still keeping its inflation goals in focus. This would bring the MPR to 26.00% by year-end.
On the other hand, we expect all other policy parameters to be retained, reflecting the Committee’s preference for a measured and orderly recalibration of monetary conditions.”
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