FRI, APRIL 17 2020-theG&BJournal- Supriya Munshaw, senior lecturer at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, who has monitored news of the vaccine development process during the COVID-19 pandemic said typically, a safe and effective vaccine will take anywhere from 10 to 15 years for development if one is starting from scratch.
She shared insights on the likely time frame for a coronavirus vaccine, the steps involved in developing one, the most promising candidates currently in the labs of biotech companies, and why, years after the MERS and SARS outbreaks, a coronavirus vaccine still has not been produced.
Her conversation was published Thursday by the John Hopkins University.
‘’The good news here is that coronaviruses aren’t novel, and there are groups that have already been working on such viruses for a while, especially since the MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV epidemics. So we are not starting from scratch, but even then 18 months is quite optimistic.’’ She said. ‘’Given the urgency of the situation, it is most likely that the manufacturer and the FDA will work together to balance the risks and benefits of the vaccine, such that the first vaccine we get may not be the most effective as long as it is safe. Since vaccines are given to healthy individuals, the safety requirements are quite high.’’
According to her; ‘’there are no vaccines to protect against any of the coronaviruses. But the research that was done during the previous epidemics may have shortened the exploratory and pre-clinical stages for the COVID-19 vaccine. That’s why we already have vaccine candidates in Phase I. The MERS-CoV vaccine is still under development, but the disease is primarily contained to the Arab peninsula. And since SARS-CoV disappeared, a vaccine is no longer necessary.’’
She said several companies are working on vaccine candidates including Moderna, Inovio, CanSino Biologics, and Shenzhen Genoimmune Medical Institute in the lead in Phase I trials. The others are in preclinical or exploratory stages.
‘’Interestingly, a trial is about to begin in Australia to test the effectiveness of the bacillus Calmette–Guérin vaccine—typically used to prevent tuberculosis—against COVID-19. We know this vaccine is already safe, so that’s taken care of. It will be interesting to see if it is effective.’’
On whether coronavirus vaccination, once developed will become an annual occurrence. She said, it depends on how long the virus lasts and how fast it mutates.
‘’The SARS-CoV disappeared before a vaccine was ever developed. There are several hypotheses why this happened, but no one knows exactly why. The social distancing and isolation measures taken during that time probably played an important role in curbing the spread.
In terms of its mutation rate, influenza has lasted and has a very high mutation rate, meaning the virus changes rapidly, and several strains are often in circulation. So every year a vaccine is made based on predictions of the strains that will be around that year. Even then, influenza vaccines don’t confer 100% protection because it is difficult to predict every single mutation.’’
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