MON, FEB 24 2020-theG&BJournal- The Nigerian ended 2019 on a solid footing, with growth finishing 0.17% points against all forecasts.
Gross domestic products-the value of goods and services produced across the economy-grew by 2.55% (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to data published today by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The GDP growth surpassed the fourth quarter of 2018 which recorded a growth rate of 2.38% and an increase of 0.27% points when compared with the third quarter of 2019. The growth surprised economists that theG&BJournal spoke to.
The strong fourth quarter 2019 growth rate also represented the highest quarterly growth performance since the 2016 recession.
Overall, this resulted in annual 2019 real growth rate of 2.27%, compared to 1.91% in 2018. Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 5.59%.
The aggregate GDP in the quarter stood at N39,577,340.04 million in nominal terms. This was higher than the fourth quarter of 2018 which recorded an aggregate of N35,230,607.63 million, representing year on year nominal growth rate of 12.34%.
This rate was –0.31% points lower relative to the rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 and –0.96% points lower than the rate recorded in the preceding quarter.
Continued growth in the non-oil sector help propel the economy in the final quarter of the year. The non-oil sector grew by 2.26% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2019).
However, this was lower by–0.44% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but 0.42% point higher than the third quarter of 2019.
This sector was driven, during the fourth quarter of 2019, mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Agriculture (Crop Production), Financial and Insurance Services (Financial Institutions), and Manufacturing.
In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 92.68% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019, lower from shares recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 (92.94%) but higher than the third quarter of 2019 (90.23%). The annual contribution of the non-Oil sector stood at 91.22% in 2019.
Crude oil production also had a huge impact. Average daily oil production of 2.00 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded during the fourth quarter of 2019, indicating a rise of 0.09mbpd over the daily average production of 1.91 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018.
However, it was –0.04mbpd lower than the production volume of 2.04mbpd recorded in the third quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, it is notable that oil production remained consistently at or above 2.0mbpd all through 2019.
Real growth of the oil sector was 6.36% (year-on-year) in Q4 2019 indicating an increase of 7.98% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018. Growth decreased by –0.13% points when compared to Q3 2019 which was 6.49%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of –20.87% in Q4 2019.
On an annual basis, oil recorded 4.59% growth in 2019, higher compared to 0.97% recorded in 2018. The Oil sector contributed 7.32% to total real GDP in Q4 2019, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 but down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.06% and 9.77% respectively. Oil contributed 8.78% to real GDP in 2019.
Economists see the Q4 growth as reflective of broader trend towards steady but slower growth.
‘’In all cases, economists and forecasters predicted a slide in 2020, even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have a negative view but this figures should make anyone rethink its Nigerian views,’’ one economists said.
The IMF last week revised the country’s growth forecast for 2020 down to 2 percent referencing expected up thick in inflation, lower international oil prices and deteriorating terms of trade and capital outflows which they project will weaken the country’s external reserves.
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