…Overall, oil production averaged 1.43mb/d in Q3-23 – 2.6% higher than the 1.39mb/d produced in Q2-23.
MON, OCT 16 2023-theGBJournal| According to the data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), crude oil production (including condensates) increased for the second consecutive month, rising by 11.1% m/m to 1.57mb/d in September (August: 1.41mb/d) – its highest level since January 2022 (1.68mb/d).
Higher crude oil production across the Forcados (+85.0% m/m | 17.5% of total production in September), Bonny (+6.3% m/m), and Erha (+22.8% m/m) production terminals were the primary drivers of the overall crude oil production in the review period.
Overall, oil production averaged 1.43mb/d in Q3-23 – 2.6% higher than the 1.39mb/d produced in Q2-23. While progress is still underway as regards the fight against crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, we believe that frequent leaks from pipelines and intermittent oil terminal shutdowns for repairs pose downside risks to crude oil production in the near term.
Thus, we maintain our 2023E average crude oil production estimate of 1.42mb/d (vs FGN’s estimate: 1.69mb/d), a relatively slight improvement compared to 2022FY production volume (1.37mb/d). Consequently, we expect the government’s oil revenue performance to remain underwhelming over the short term.
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