SAT. 14 JANUARY, 2023-theGBJournal| According to the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), aggregate crude oil production (including condensates settled at 1.41mb/d in December (November: 1.41mb/d), taking the average crude oil production to 1.38mb/d in 2022FY (-14.9% y/y vs 2021FY: 1.62mb/d).
Crude oil production increase in November and December compared to the Q3-22 average (1.21mb/d) synchronised neatly with the government’s efforts at curbing crude oil theft and vandalism.
However, production volume remains significantly below the country’s OPEC+ production quota (1.83mb/d), likely reflecting the impact of other factors limiting crude oil production asides from oil thefts and vandalism.
In December, crude oil production increased in the Bonny (62.8% m/m), Qua Iboe (6.8% m/m), and Forcados (4.6% m/m) terminals.
”Although we expect crude oil production to increase in 2023E (Cordros estimate: 1.53mb/d vs FGN’s estimate: 1.69mb/d), we think it is unlikely to reach the pre-pandemic level (c. 2.10mb/d) in the absence of incentivising investment in new production capacity and proper training of indigenous firms to handle the divested IOC’s assets,”Cordros Research said in a note to theG&BJournal.
Consequently, they expect the government’s oil revenue performance to remain underwhelming over the short term.
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