MON, 14 NOV, 2022-theGBJournal| According to the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), aggregate crude oil production including condensates bucked three consecutive months of decline, increasing by 8.2% m/m to 1.23mb/d in September (August: 1.14mb/d).
The increase was primarily driven by the Forcados (83.59kb/d vs August: 4.48kb/d) oil terminal as Shell Petroleum Development Company Limited (SPDC) resumed crude oil export at the terminal on 20 October after about three months of shutdown for essential repairs.
Bonny (+772.0% m/m), Brass (+98.0% m/m) and Escravos (+26.5% m/m) terminals also supported the higher crude oil production in the review period. However, the crude oil production remains significantly below the country’s OPEC+ quota (1.83mb/d), reflecting lingering challenges.
Although we expect the Forcados terminal to continue to support oil production volume in the short term, we expect it to remain below the pre-COVID production high (c. 2.10mb/d) over the medium term.
Accordingly, oil GDP could remain a drag on overall GDP growth. In addition, despite the rally in crude oil prices, we expect the government’s oil revenue performance to remain underwhelming over the short term.
Twitter-@theGBJournal| Facebook-The Government and Business Journal|email: gbj@govbusinessjournal.ng|govandbusinessj@gmail.com
