WED JULY 23 2025-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting a continued recovery and an improvement from the 2.27% recorded in Q1 2024.
What Changed?
-The GDP figures reflect Nigeria’s newly rebased GDP series, with 2019 as the new base year.
-Historical quarterly data has been benchmarked to align with rebased annual estimates, offering a more accurate representation of the economy.
-This rebased series now forms the basis for comparing Q1 2025 performance.
GDP Growth Performance
-Real GDP grew by 3.13% y/y in Q1 2025, making an improvement from 2.7% in the first quarter of 2024.
-Growth was primarily supported by improvements in the services and industry sectors, underscoring a shift in economic structure.
Sectoral Breakdown
-Services Sector: Grew by 4.33% y/y, contributing 57.50% to total GDP — the primary driver of growth.
-Agriculture Sector: Posted marginal growth of 0.07%, a notable recovery from a -1.79% contraction in Q1 2024.
-Industry Sector: Expanded by 3.42%, improving from 2.35% in the same quarter of the previous year.
-Oil Sector: Declined by 1.87% y/y, contributing 3.97% to GDP — lower than the 4.02% contribution recorded in Q1 2024.
Nominal GDP Performance
Aggregate nominal GDP stood at N94.05 trillion (basic prices), up from N79.51 trillion in Q1 2024. This reflects a robust nominal growth rate of 18.30% year-on-year.
The 3.13% GDP growth in Q1 2025 signals ongoing recovery, driven by services and industry.
However, the oil sector’s contraction and muted agricultural rebound highlight weaknesses in the developing recovery story in two key sectors.
Sustaining growth will depend on improved macroeconomic stability, sustainability of the FX reforms, and targeted support for underperforming sectors.-credit/Coronation Research
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