SAT DEC 14 2024-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) increased after two consecutive months of decline, rising by 9.9% m/m to 1.69 mb/d in November (October: 1.54 mb/d), based on data by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
This is attributed to the improvement in the period to higher production volume recorded across the Forcados (+65.8% m/m), Bonny (+20.6% m/m) and Qua Iboe (+1.3% m/m) production terminals, while the Brass (-9.2% m/m), Escravos (-6.1% m/m), Odudu (-4.1% m/m) and Agbami (-2.4% m/m) terminals recorded declines.
Despite the improvement, we note that overall crude oil production remains below pre-COVID levels (Q1-20 average: 2.14 mb/d) due to the lingering effects of insecurity, infrastructure decay as well as low investment in the sector exacerbated by the exit of international oil companies (IOCs) and unresolved issues regarding the approval of oil asset transfers.
While progress is still underway as regards the fight against crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, it is believe that challenges plaguing the sector still pose downside risks to crude oil production in the near term.
Nonetheless, given the recent improvement, Cordros Research analysts tells theG&BJournal that say they have raised their average crude oil production estimate (including condensate) to 1.54 mb/d (previously: 1.52 mb/d) in 2024E.
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