MON, DECEMBER 10 2018-theG&BJournal-Activity in Nigeria’s agriculture and manufacturing sectors jumped in the third quarter of 2018, offering fresh hope that the economy is beginning to purr again.
Gross domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.81% (YoY) in real terms in the third quarter of 2018, according to the latest figures published today by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The growth is an increase of 0.64% points compared to the third quarter of 2017 which recorded a growth of 1.17% and 0.31% points higher than figure recorded in the second quarter of 2018 which had a growth rate of 1.50%. Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 9.05%.
Economists theG&BJournal spoke to said the strong numbers provided a tentative suggestion that growth is accelerating on a much faster pace.
Agriculture contributed 25.52% to nominal GDP in the third quarter under review. Growth in the sector surpassed rates achieved both in Q3 2017 and Q2 2018 by 24.50% and 18.78% respectively. Budgetary allocation to the sector in 2018 increased substantially to N118.98 billion, an improvement from the N103.79 billion it received in 2017 budget.
There are also a number of existing efforts which has helped boost the performance of the sector since the Federal Government’s began concerted efforts towards diversifying the economy at the beginning of the year. The Central Bank of Nigeria is spearheading an intervention fund at a single digit interest rate under the Anchor Borrowers Programme. There is also the Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS) as well as the Nigeria Incentive-Based Risk-Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL).
Meanwhile, in the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N33,368,049.14 million in nominal terms which is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2017 which recorded a GDP aggregate of N29,377,674.03 million thus, presenting a positive year on year nominal growth rate of 13.58%. This growth rate is higher relative to growth recorded in the third quarter of 2017 by 2.88% points and higher than the preceding quarter by 0.01% points with growth rates of 10.70% and 13.57% respectively. For clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.
According to the NBS, in nominal terms, Other Services grew by 5.71% (year-on-year) in Q3 2018.
‘’This growth rate is higher than the 3.97% growth rate recorded in the same quarter of the previous year and higher than the growth rate of 4.96 % in Q2 2018 by 1.73 % points and 0.75% points respectively.’’
Public Administration activity expanded by 1.80% in Q3 2018 in nominal terms also, higher by 0.32% points from the corresponding quarter of 2017 and by 4.94% points relative to Q2 2018. Quarter-on-Quarter, the sector grew by –3.18%.
Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the third quarter of 2018 was recorded as 32.73% (year-on-year), 22.41% points higher than figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2017 (10.32%) and 13.21% points higher than the preceding quarter figure of 19.52%. Quarter on Quarter growth of the sector is recorded at 14.62%.
The non-oil sector grew by 2.32% in real terms during the reference quarter. This is higher by 3.08% points compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2017 and 0.28% point higher than the second quarter of 2018.
NBS noted that the country in the third quarter of 2018 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.94million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 2.02mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2017 by 0.08mbpd but higher than that of the second quarter of 2018 production volume of 1.84mbpd by 0.10mbpd.
The total value of capital importation into Nigeria stood at $ 5,513.55 million in the second quarter of 2018. This was a decrease of 12.53% compared to Q1 2018, but a 207.62% increase compared to the second quarter of 2017.
In the third quarter of 2018, the nominal year on year growth rate of Trade stood at 3.78%. This indicates an increase by 3.34% points when compared to the third quarter of 2017 and 3.79% points higher than the previous quarter.
In nominal terms, Other Services grew by 5.71% (year-on-year) in Q3 2018. This growth rate is higher than the 3.97% growth rate recorded in the same quarter of the previous year and higher than the growth rate of 4.96 % in Q2 2018 by 1.73 % points and 0.75% points respectively.
The contribution of Education to nominal GDP in Q3 2018 was 2.13%; down from 2.27% estimated in Q3 2017 but up from 1.75% in Q2 2018. Real growth in Education year-on-year stood at -0.42% in Q3 2018; an increase of 0.80% points from the corresponding quarter of 2017 which was estimated at –1.22%. When compared with the previous quarter’s rate of -0.67%, the sector increased by 0.25% points.
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