By IKEMEFUNA C
THUR, SEPT 27 2018-theG&BJournal-The All Progressives Congress, APC will be holding its governorship primaries on the 29th September, 2018. One state the ruling national party hopes to pick up in the 2019 general election is Delta State where the political environment strongly favours APC. With very low popularity of the incumbent PDP governor, Dr. IfeanyiOkowa and electorates clamouring for change, conditions are quite right for an APC victory in the state’s gubernatorial election.
But how well APC does in 2019 will depend largely on who emerges as the party’s gubernatorial candidate. And from what I can see APC could blow it in Delta State, as they appear to be headed in the wrong direction.
The primary process to pick the candidate to face Okowa is undoubtedly rigged to produce a pre-ordained outcome – the nomination of Chief Great Ogboru. Ogboru is the candidate of the Labour wing of Delta APC which fully controls the party right now.
And in return, the Prophet Jones Erue led executive is giving explicit and implicit support to Ogboru and he is leveraging it to his advantage. Indeed, Ogboru entered the race with the imprimatur that usually is only accorded to a heir apparent.
By handing the full control of the party to Ogboru after two parallel congresses were held in May and also approving indirect primary where party officials, from the ward level to the state level who are playing consequential roles in the nomination process and are expected to be neutral in the primary, but are openly supporting Ogboru, would be the delegates to the Electoral College, the primary could just be a coronation of Ogboru.
With Ogboru’s popularity, it was very easy for National Working Committee to believe that only Ogboru can win Delta, as they have been told by Ogboru supporters, and therefore have no need for a contested primary. This is a classic case of underestimating Okowa and overestimating Ogboru appeal. And it would be grave mistake to give the ticket of APC to Ogboru.
Ogboru of today is not the Ogboru of 2011 who lost gallantly to Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan twice, winning eleven and twelve out of twenty five local government areas in January 2011 re-run and April 2011 general election respectively. It is believed that Ogboru actually won those two elections, but was rigged out by PDP. Rather he more like the Ogboru of 2015 who, against Okowa, the man whom he will face in 2019, should he emerge as the governorship candidate of APC, won only four local government areas.
In politics, as in life, you can’t win if you don’t compete and as the mantra goes-united we stand, divided we fail. But the bottom line in politics is you have to compete if you expect to win. And you also need a uniter, not a divider to the bring the party together for the task of winning the election. So APC must consider a few fundamental questions in choosing its candidate.
First, who is the candidate that offers the most vivid contrast to Governor IfeanyiOkowa? Or does APC think that Okowa is so flawed that any person will automatically win?
Next, do power rotation matter in 2019? Or is it all about the most popular candidate? It is the hope of the PDP that APC would ignore the Anioma agitation for one more term to complete the two terms which both Delta Central and Delta South have done when Chief James Ibori and Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan served as governor for eight years each.
Finally, Delta APC is sharply divided by political factions, with Chief Great Ogboru, Senator Omo-Agege, and the recognised Chairman, Prophet Jones Erue on one side, and OlorogunO’tegaEmerhor, Engr. HycinthEnuha and the rival Chairman, Chief Cyril Ogodo, on the other. This lack of unity within the party poses a big threat to the overall objective of winning the state in 2019.
Ogboru has the reputation for character and integrity and thus can be contrasted with Okowa. He also has a deep reservoir of goodwill, a cult followership, and he is loved by the Urhobo people, the largest ethnic group in Delta state. But there is just one problem: He’s a deeply flawed candidate who can’t compete everywhere as was the case in 2015 because his candidacy is out of sync with the mood of the electorates who roundly rejected him in 2015 amidst strong agitation of minorities in Delta state for power rotation.
He also can’t unite the party. The infighting within the party could be another lucky break for Okowa. And Ogboru candidacy would exacerbate it. As the leader of the Erue led State Working Committee, Ogboru candidacy would not enjoy the full support of a major group within APC that is loyal to the 2015 gubernatorial candidate of APC, OlorogunOtegaEmerhor. Ogboru would also attract greater resistance from former members of the PDP who still consider him as a foe. Indeed, his chance of winning the election is next to zero, contrary to what his supporters want the party to believe.
To have any chance of defeating Okowa in 2019, Ogboru must first win back the voters he lost in 2015. These include Ukwuani, Ndokwa West, IKa South, Oshimili South from Delta North, Isoko South from Delta South and Ughelli South, Okpe and Sapele from Delta Central.
With the agitation for a second term for Anioma stronger and more widespread as ever, fielding Ogboru would mean ceding the nine of 25 local governments in Delta state to Okowa. And given that Ogboru has never won Ethiope West, Bomadi, Patani, Burutu, Warri South, Warri North and Warri South, it is hard to see how he can win.
And with what has happened in Osun where APC ignored the agitation of the people of Osun West Senatorial District, APC should take heed. They are setting up the right dynamic for a Okowa re-election should the party nominate Ogboru as its candidate in 2019.
Worst still, the alienation of the Aniomas caused by Ogboru candidacy would hurt President MuhammaduBuhari in the presidential election and other candidates in both national and state legislative elections.
APC can still save the situation by turning to its Delta North Star, Prof Pat Utomi. Like Ogboru, Utomi has the character and integrity that Deltans needs in their next governor. But unlike Ogboru, Utomi’s appeal cuts across the three senatorial districts and the factional divide within the party. He is thus the only aspirant who can unite the party and expand the support base by attracting to the party Deltans who have been disenchanted with politics.
Not only is Utomi uniquely qualified he is a sharper contrast in interests, abilities and pedigree to Okowa that would energize new voters to embrace APC. And the fact that he is from Delta North would make it possible for APC to compete in Delta North and win there, something Ogboru could not do in 2015 and wouldn’t be able to do in 2019 because the dynamics has not changed.
Undoubtedly, Utomi is APC best choice and perfect foil for Okowa. It would be a shame on APC. And Deltans who may never have this opportunity again to have somebody like Utomi offer himself sacrificially to be governor of Delta State may find it difficult to forgive APC.
Neither direct nor indirect primaries can unite the party given the level of bitterness that exists among the factions. Not even the harmonization of the party structure at this late stage of the game would sufficiently heal the wounds and guarantee a level playing field for all aspirants. What is required is the intervention of the National Working Committee and the leadership of the party, as was done during the congress to swing the control of the party to Ogboru, to ensure the emergence of Prof. Pat Utomi as the consensus candidate.
This is the only viable option open to the party at this late stage in the process. If the National could intervene to give the control of the party to Ogboru, it can also do same to give the ticket to Utomi, who has a better chance of winning the election for APC and who has also contributed so much to the growth and development of the party as a founding member and aspirant. That would be justice, after all what’s good for the goose is good for the gander. And Utomi and Ogboru can then work together to deliver Delta State to APC in 2019.
CHARLES IKEMEFUNA
