TUE, 14 JUNE, 2022-theGBJournal| For 2022, world oil demand growth is broadly unchanged to stand at 3.4 mb/d, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report for June published today.
‘’Within the quarters, the 2Q22 is revised down, reflecting the lockdown in some part of China leading to lower-than-expected demand, while 2H22 is revised up on expectations of higher demand during the summer holiday and driving season. Oil demand growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.8 mb/d in the OECD and 1.6 mb/d in the non-OECD,’’ OPEC said.
It said in the report that global oil demand is anticipated to average 101.8 mb/d in 2H22, up from 98.7 mb/d on average seen in 1H22. Oil demand growth in the OECD is forecast to average 1.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2H22, with OECD Americas remaining the largest contributor to oil demand growth.
OPEC said Improving mobility in major economies, as well as seasonal containment of the pandemic is projected to support gasoline and distillate demand.
In terms of main products, gasoline is expected to lead oil demand growth in the region, closely followed by LPG, middle distillates and naphtha.
In the non-OECD, oil demand is estimated to increase by 1.6 mb/d in 2H22 y-o-y, driven mostly by China, India, Other Asia and the Middle East. The rapid containment of COVID-19 in China is expected to support a healthy rebound in economic momentum in the region. In terms of products, middle distillates are projected to be the main contributor to growth, followed by gasoline, LPG and naphtha.
‘’Looking ahead, current geopolitical developments and the uncertain roll-out of the pandemic toward the end of the second half of the year continue to pose a considerable risk to the forecast recovery to pre-pandemic levels. Inflationary pressures are likely to persist and it remains highly uncertain as to when geopolitical issues may be resolved. Nevertheless, oil demand is forecast at healthy levels in the second half of this year,’’ OPEC said in the report.
Meanwhile, OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecast for 2022 at 3.5%-following growth of 5.8% in 2021.
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