THUR 14 OCT, 2021-theGBJournal- OPEC said ‘’the downward revision is mainly driven by lower-than-expected actual data for the first three quarters of this year, despite healthy oil demand assumptions going into the final quarter of the year, which will be supported by seasonal uptick in petrochemical and heating fuel demand and the potential switch from natural gas to petroleum products due to high gas prices.’’
The oil cartel, in their October oil market report, said they estimate world oil demand to increase by 5.8 mb/d in 2021, revised down from 5.96 mb/d in the previous month’s assessment.
Both OECD and non-OECD figures are adjusted lower, with the downward revision in OECD regions focused in 1H21, while the non-OECD revision is concentrated in 3Q21.The world is expected to consume 96.6 mb/d of petroleum products this year. For 2022, world oil demand growth is unchanged at 4.2 mb/d. As a result, global demand next year is seen averaging 100.8 mb/d.
Demand is anticipated to be supported by healthy economic momentum in the main consuming countries and better management of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Meanwhile the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose firmly in September, rising m-o-m by $3.55, or 5.0%, to stand at $73.88/b.
This was on the back of higher ORB component-related crude benchmarks, and an increase in official selling prices (OSPs) for grades delivering to Asia and US markets, amid a healthier physical crude market. Compared to the previous year, the ORB was up 64.5%, from $40.62/b in 2020 to an average of $66.83/b so far this year.
All ORB component values rose in September, with West and North African Basket components – Bonny Light, Djeno, Es Sider, Girassol, Rabi Light, Sahara Blend and Zafiro – rising $3.37, or 4.9% m-o-m on average, to $72.91/b. The multiple regions’ destination grades – Arab Light, Basrah Light, Iran Heavy, and Kuwait Export – increased m-o-m by $3.65, or 5.2% on average, to settle at $74.44/b. Murban crude rose m-o-m by $3.52, or 5.0% on average, to settle at $73.41/b. The Merey component also rose m-o-m by $3.20, or 6.2% on average, to settle at $54.96/b.
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