FRI APRIL 18 2025-theGBJournal| Oil prices rose (3%) to the highest level in two weeks on Thursday amid low liquidity ahead of the Easter holidays after the United States imposed new sanctions to curb Iranian oil exports, elevating supply concerns.
Brent crude futures climb $2.11 to $67.96 per barrel while the U.S West Texas Intermediate crude settled $2.21 higher to $64.68.
Oil producers are responding quickly to the economic turmoil sparked by President Donald Trump’s trade war by slowing down drilling activity, while larger companies are rethinking big-ticket projects. This means short-term tariff drama could have long-term consequences for the U.S. oil industry.
American shale drillers, particularly in the Permian basin, have upended oil markets during the past 15 years, catapulting the United States into its current position as the world’s largest oil producer.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) declined for the second consecutive month, decreasing by 4.1% m/m to 1.60 mb/d in March (February: 1.67 mb/d), its lowest level since October 2024, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) report.
The decline is attributed partly to increased pipeline vandalism and sub-optimal investments in the sector.
Notably, the increases witnessed across the Brass (+27.6%m/m), Bonny (+20.2%m/m), Escravos (+13.7% m/m), Odudu (+12.1% m/m), Tulja-Okwuibome (+11.1% m/m) and Agbami (+8.0% m/m) terminals were not enough to offset the declines in Qua Iboe (-16.9% m/m) and Forcados (-12.6% m/m) terminals.
Looking ahead, gradual investments and improved tracking measures in the oil sector are expected to support crude oil production above 2024 levels on average.
Nonetheless, we cite that pipeline security concerns continue to present as downside risk to near-term output. We maintain our average crude oil production forecast (including condensates) at 1.68 mb/d for 2025E (2024FY: 1.56 mb/d).
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