MON JULY 14 2025-theGBJournal| Oil prices surged more than 2% on Friday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global supply may be tighter than it appears, driven by peak summer refinery activity.
Brent crude rose by 2.5% to settle at $70.36 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 2.8% to close at $68.45. On the week, Brent added 3% and WTI rose about 2.2%.
The IEA’s warning of constrained supplies came alongside news of falling U.S. rig counts, marking the 11th straight weekly decline, an occurrence last seen during the height of COVID-related demand destruction in July 2020.
Additionally, front-month Brent contracts traded at a premium, signaling expectations of short-term supply tightness. Despite the near-term bullish sentiment, the IEA revised up its supply growth forecast while slightly cutting its demand outlook, suggesting a possible surplus ahead.
Analysts at Commerzbank cautioned that OPEC+ could rapidly increase output, posing a risk of oversupply. Russia also remains in focus, as Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak pledged to offset the country’s recent overproduction, while President Trump hinted at a major announcement on Russia expected Monday.
The potential for further U.S. sanctions on Moscow and ongoing tariff concerns are adding to oil market volatility.
Saudi Arabia is expected to ship 51 million barrels of crude to China in August, the largest volume in over two years, signaling strong demand from Asia.
However, longer-term projections remain cautious, with OPEC cutting its 2026–2029 global oil demand forecast due to weakening Chinese growth.
Meanwhile, OPEC boosted its global demand outlook as the oil group expects consumption to reach 122.9 million b/d by 2050, adding more than 19 million b/d over the next 25 years, banking on Indian, African and Middle Eastern growth.
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