MON JUNE 23 2025-theGBJournal| Oil prices surged nearly 3%, briefly touching five-months high on Monday as tensions escalated between Israel and Iran.
The U.S attack on Iran nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan on Saturday added more pressure on the market.
Brent crude hit its highest level since January, and analysts warned that a wider regional war or disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—through which a significant share of global oil flows—could send prices soaring to $120–$130 per barrel.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs in new note warned that Brent crude could rise all the way to $100 and more, peaking at $110 per barrel in case Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs said this price could materialize if oil flows through the vital chokepoint were cut by half for a month and remained 10% lower than normal over the next 11 months.
The Investment banker estimates the chance of shutting the Strait at 52%, citing data from crowd-sourced prediction platform Polymarket.
While the market is pricing in a geopolitical premium, some analysts believe any price spikes may be temporary if conflict de-escalates.
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