MON, APRIL 24 2018-theG&BJournal-The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) report released for Q1, 2018 has revealed that the CCI declined from 70.5-points in Q4, 2017 to 65.6-points signifying a 4.9-points decrease.
This decrease indicates that confidence among Nigerian households to spend declined in Q1, 2018. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index mirrors consumers’ attitudes on present and future economic prospects forecasting business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. Since the strength of a nation’s economy is demonstrated by the willingness of its consumers to either spend or incur debt, the decrease experienced from the results obtained in Q1, 2018 may have a direct impact on the flow of business activities in the country.
The two variables that make up the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) both experienced a decline. The PSI experienced an 11.6-points decline from the results of Q4, 2017 (50.6-points) to stand at 39-points in Q1, 2018. Similarly, the EI declined by 5.6-points to stand at 79.9-points.
The PSI and EI comprises of 7 variables and five out of the 7 variables experienced a decline. The current prices of goods and services and the economic indices accounted for the highest decrease of 16.5points and 10.4-points respectively.
The Current Economic Situation Index is the second highest decline. It decreased by 10.4-points to stand at 39.2-points compared to the result obtained in Q4, 2017.
Expectation of the Country’s Economic Situation Index –93.9-This index declined by 1.6-points to stand at 93.9 in Q1 2018, signifying that consumers are hopeful about the country’s economic situation.
Current Employment Condition Index – 53.7-The Current Employment Situation index declined by 0.9-point to stand at 53.7 in Q1, 2018.
Expected Employment Condition Index – 98.0-This Index increased by 0.8-point to stand at 98.-points in Q1, 2018.
Current Prices of Goods and Services Index – 24.0-The Current Prices of Goods and Services Index experienced the highest decline of 16.5-points in Q1, 2018.
Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index – 81.3-The Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index declined by 1.4-points to stand at 81.3-points in Q1, 2018 signifying that consumers are anticipating a future reduction in the prices of goods and services.
Expected Total Family Income Index – 69.2-The Expected Total Family Income Index increased by 4.3-points to stand at 69.2-points in Q1, 2018.
Trend analysis revealed that the CCI, PSI and the EI all declined from results obtained in Q4, 2017.
Monthly trend analysis showed that the CCI experienced a steady decline since February 2018.
According to the survey, the decline in the CCI of Q1, 2018 could be mainly driven by a rising pessimism amongst Nigerian households in regard to their views on current economic conditions. This result shows that consumer expectations concerning future economic developments have declined modestly.
