SAT DEC 13 2025-theGBJournal| According to the trade report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), total foreign trade rose by 8.7% y/y to N38.94 trillion in Q3-25 (Q3-24: N35.82 trillion | Q2-25: N38.04 trillion).
In USD, total trade increased by 12.8% y/y to USD25.58 billion (Q3-24: USD22.68 billion), supported by the rise in total exports (+15.3% y/y to USD14.99 billion), and total imports (+9.5% y/y to USD10.59 billion).
Export performance was driven largely by strong gains in non-crude oil exports (+45.6% y/y) and non-oil exports (+23.9% y/y), which offset a marginal decline in crude oil exports (-0.9% y/y) amid softer average crude prices (Q3-25: USD68.17/bbl vs. Q3-24: USD78.70/bbl).
On the import side, total imports rose due to a significant increase in non-oil imports (+45.5% y/y), reflecting improved FX liquidity and firmer consumer demand. This expansion more than offset the sharp contraction in petroleum imports (-45.6% y/y), following the ramp-up in domestic refining capacity.
Overall, Nigeria’s trade balance strengthened by 32.1% y/y to USD4.40 billion (Q3-24: USD3.33 billion), as export growth outpaced the rise in imports. Looking ahead, softer crude oil prices and only modest gains in crude production are expected to continue weighing on crude oil export earnings.
”Nevertheless, higher export volumes of gas and refined petroleum products should more than offset this drag,” Cordros Research said
On the import side, improved FX liquidity and the stability of the naira are supporting growth in non-oil imports, while the steady decline in refined petroleum imports is moderating overall import momentum, resulting in a slower pace of increase in total imports.
”Taken together, the trade balance is projected to remain firmly in surplus in 2025E, reaching USD18.08 billion compared with USD13.17 billion in 2024FY.”
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