THUR. 15 DEC, 2022-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s headline inflation maintained its uptrend for the tenth consecutive month, rising by 38bps in November to 21.47% y/y (October: 21.09% y/y), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report November 2022 published today.
The outturn is 10bps above Cordros’ estimate (21.37% y/y) and 17bps higher than Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (21.30% y/y).
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased by 15bps to 1.39% (October: 1.24% m/m), 0.15% higher than the rate recorded in October 2022 (1.24%). This means that in the month of November 2022, the general price level was 0.15% higher relative to October 2022.
The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months period ending November 2022 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 18.37%, showing a 1.39% increase compared to 16.98% recorded in November 2021.
The NBS attributes the The increase in the monthly inflation rate to the sharp increase in demand usually experienced during the festive season. The statistics office also attributes the increase in annual inflation rate to the Increase in cost of importation due to the persistent currency depreciation as well as the general increase in the cost of production e.g increase in energy cost.
Meanwhile, food inflation rose by 40bps to 24.13% y/y (October: 23.72% y/y). The rise in food inflation, according to the NBS was caused by increased prices of Bread and cereals, Oil and fat, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Food products, Fish. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation settled at 1.40%, relative to the 1.23% m/m recorded in October.
The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve-month period ending November 2022 over the previous twelve-month average was 20.41%, which was 0.21% points lower from the average annual rate of change recorded in November 2021 (20.62%).
Similarly, the core inflation increased by 48bps to 18.24% y/y (October: 17.76 y/y) – its highest reading since November 2016 (18.24% y/y). We highlight that the prices of Gas, Liquid fuel, Passenger transport by Air, Vehicles spare parts and Solid fuel recorded the highest increases. As a result, compared to the previous month, the core index grew by 74bps to 1.67% m/m in November 2022 (October: 0.93% m/m).
In November 2022, all items inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Ebonyi (26.11%), Kogi (25.84%), Rivers (24.45%), while Kaduna (18.87%), Sokoto (19.02%) and Cross river (19.17%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year-on-Year inflation.
On a month-on-month basis, however, November 2022 recorded the highest increases in Ebonyi (3.16%), Niger (2.70%), Plateau (2.44%), while Ogun (-0.17%), Abuja (-0.12%) and Sokoto (0.25%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.
On the other hand, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kwara (29.74%), Kogi (29.51%), and Ebonyi (28.25%), while Kaduna (19.30%), Sokoto (19.48%) and Jigawa (20.55%) recorded the slowest rise in year-on-year food inflation.
On a month-on-month basis, however, November 2022 food inflation was highest in Nasarawa (2.87%), Delta (2.66%), and Plateau (2.53%), while Sokoto (-0.94%), Ogun (-0.34%) and Yobe (-0.10%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.
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