WED 15 SEPT, 2021-theGBJournal- The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today published the Consumer Price Index for August 2021 and in line with expectation, Nigeria’s headline inflation moderated for the fifth consecutive month to 17.01% y/y in August 2021 (July: 17.38% y/y).
The outturn is 6bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (16.95% y/y) and in line with Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (17.00% y/y). On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased by 9bps to 1.02%.
Food inflation sustained its deceleration for the fifth consecutive month, declining by 73bps to 20.30% y/y in August 2021 (July: 21.03% y/y). Notably, the highest price increases were recorded in Bread and cereals, Milk, cheese and egg, Oils and fats, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Food products, Meat and Coffee, tea and cocoa. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation increased by 1.06% in August (July: 0.86%).
Similarly, core inflation slowed by 31bps to 13.41% y/y (July: 13.72% y/y). Pressures were most significant in the prices of Shoes and other footwear, Household textile, Motor cars, Garments, Game of chance, Major household appliances whether electrical or not, Hospital services, Catering services, Appliances, articles and products for personal care and Clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories. Compared to the previous month, the core index declined by 54bps to 0.77% m/m in August.
On the contrary, urban inflation rate increased by 17.59 percent (year-on-year) in August 2021 from 18.01 percent recorded in July 2021, while the rural inflation rate increased by 16.43 percent in August 2021 from 16.75% in July 2021.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.06% in August 2021, up by 0.08 the rate recorded in July 2021 (0.98), while the rural index also rose by 0.99 percent in August 2021, up by 0.12 the rate that was recorded in July 2021 (0.87)%.
The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 17.19 percent in August 2021. This is higher than 16.89% reported in July 2021, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in August 2021 is 16.03% compared to 15.73 percent recorded in July 2021.
In August 2021, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Kogi (23.40), Bauchi (21.56%) and Oyo (20.32%), while Bayelsa (15.04%), River (14.73%) and Kwara (14.64%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.
On month on month basis however, August 2021 all items inflation was highest in Cross River (2.65%), Zamfara (2.05%) and Akwa Ibom (2.01%), while K aduna (0.20%) and River (0.14%) recorded the slowest rise with Ebonyi recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the prices of goods and services or a negative inflation rate).
Food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kogi (28.76%), Oyo (23.69%) and Gombe (22.37%), while River (17.69%), Edo (17.26%) and Bauchi (17.24%) recorded the slowest rise in year on year food inflation.
On month on month basis however, August 2021 food inflation was highest in Ekiti (2.70%), Abuja (2.62%) and Akwa Ibom (2.50%), while Lagos (0.04%) and Edo (0.08%) recorded the slowest rise with Kaduna recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).
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