MON. 16 JANUARY, 2023-theGBJournal| For the first time in 12 months, Nigeria’s headline inflation, settling at 21.34% y/y in December 2022 (November: 21.47% y/y), according to latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index (December 2022) report.
The outturn is 36bps above Cordros’ estimate (20.98% y/y) and 46bps lower than Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (21.80% y/y).
However, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased by 32bps to 1.71% (November: 1.39% m/m).
NBS attributes the likely factors responsible to increase in inflation rate in month-on-month to the sharp increase in demand usually experienced during the festive season, increase in the cost of production e.g. increase in energy cost, transportation cost, exchange rate depreciation etc.
Food inflation moderated by 37bps to 23.75% y/y (November: 24.13% y/y). The slowdown in food inflation was despite the increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Oil and fat, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Fish and Food Product.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation settled at 1.89%, relative to the 1.40% m/m recorded in November.
Elsewhere, the core inflation increased by 25bps to 18.49% y/y (November: 18.24 y/y). We note that pressures were significant in prices of Gas, Liquid fuel, Passenger transport by Air, Vehicles spare parts, Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment, Solid fuel etc.
However, compared to the previous month, the core index eased by 34bps to 1.33% m/m in December 2022 (November: 1.67% m/m).
Meanwhile, NBS reports that all items inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Bauchi (23.79%), Kogi (23.35%), Anambra (23.13%), while Taraba (18.98%), Osun (19.09%) and Kwara (19.18%) recorded the slowest rise in headline year-on-year inflation.
On a month-on-month basis, however, December 2022 recorded the highest increases in Oyo (3.48%), Abuja (3.05%), Sokoto (2.58%), while Ebonyi (0.11%), Ekiti (0.68%) and Nasarawa (0.70%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.
On the other hand, In December 2022, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kwara (27.90%), Imo (26.94%) and Ebonyi (26.28%), while Sokoto (20.90%), Taraba (21.59%) and Cross River (21.71%) recorded the slowest rise in year-on-year food inflation.
On a month-on-month basis, however, December 2022 food inflation was highest in Sokoto (3.38%), Oyo (3.10%) and Kaduna (2.97%), while Nasarawa (0.06%), Osun (0.70%) and Kogi (0.76%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.
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