…The outturn is 13ps and 10bps higher than Cordros’ (33.27% y/y) and Bloomberg’s median consensus (33.30%) estimates, respectively
…Food inflation moderated by 134bps to 39.53% y/y (June: 40.87% y/y)
…However, core inflation (All items less farm produce and energy) rose by 6bps to 27.47% y/y (June: 27.40% y/y).
THUR AUG 15 2024-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s inflation saw its first downward trend for the first time since December 2022, according to the inflation report published today by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The numbers show inflation easing by 80bps to 33.40% y/y in July 2024, providing some relief for consumers.
The outturn is 13ps and 10bps higher than Cordros’ (33.27% y/y) and Bloomberg’s median consensus (33.30%) estimates, respectively.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed by 3bps to 2.28% (June: 2.31% m/m).
Food inflation moderated by 134bps to 39.53% y/y (June: 40.87% y/y), an encouraging sign that suggests that underlying price pressures may be gradually easing.
Analysts tell theG&BJournal that this is a step in the right direction, but adds that it’s essential to monitor the trend closely for continued improvement.
The slowdown in food inflation can be attributed to the decline in the rate of increase in the average prices of Tin Milk, Baby Powdered milk, etc. (Under Milk, Cheese & egg Class), Mudfish fish, Fresh fish (Obokun), snail, etc. (Under Fish Class), Date Palm fruit (Debenu), Watermelon, etc. Garri, Akpu (fufu), etc. (Under Bread and Cereals Class), Exercise books, Textbooks, etc. (Under Books & Stationaries Class) and Turkey meat, Minced Pork, etc (Under Meat Class).
Thus, on a month-on-month basis, food inflation settled at 2.47%, relative to the 2.55% m/m recorded in June.
However, core inflation (All items less farm produce and energy) rose by 6bps to 27.47% y/y (June: 27.40% y/y).
The highest increases were recorded in prices of Rents (Actual and Imputed Rentals for Housing Class), Bus Journey intercity, Journey by motorcycle, etc (under Passenger Transport by Road Class), and Accommodation Service, Laboratory service, X-ray photography, Consultation Fee of a medical doctor, etc (under Medical Services Class).
Similarly, the core index increased by 10bps to 2.16% m/m in July compared to the previous month (2.06% m/m).
Meanwhile, all Items inflation rate on a Year-on-Year basis, in July, was highest in Bauchi (46.04%), Jigawa (40.77%), and Kebbi (37.47%).
Benue (27.28%), Delta (28.06%) and Borno (28.33%) recorded the slowest rise in Headline inflation on Year-on-Year basis.
On a Month-on-Month basis, however, July 2024 recorded the highest increases in Abuja (3.91%), Borno (3.84%), Enugu (3.76%), while Taraba (0.17%), Kwara (0.62%) and Ondo (0.91%) recorded the slowest rise on Month-on-Month inflation.
Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Sokoto (46.26%), Jigawa (46.05%), Enugu (44.06%) while Adamawa (33.48%), Bauchi (35.10%) and Benue
(36.41%), recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on Year-on-Year basis.
On a Month on-Month basis, however, July 2024 Food inflation was highest in Borno (5.07%), Sokoto (4.99%), and Enugu (4.17%), while Kwara (0.51%), Taraba (0.56%) and Ondo (0.68%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on Month-on-Month basis.
The G&BJournal analysts say today’s inflation data offers further evidence of a potential turning point in the inflationary trend.
”The decline in the annual inflation rate is a welcome development, and the moderation in core inflation is particularly encouraging. The report provides a glimmer of hope that inflationary pressures may be gradually subsiding.
However, the persistent impact of core index on the overall index serves as a reminder that the battle against inflation is far from over.”
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