THUR, 24 NOV, 2022-theGBJournal| According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed in Q3-22, with real GDP growing by 2.25% y/y (Q2-22: +3.54% y/y).
The growth outturn is 65bps lower than Cordros’ estimate (+2.90% y/y) and Bloomberg’s median consensus (+2.90% y/y) estimate, respectively.
The NBS says the reduction in growth is attributable to the base effects of the recession and the challenging economic conditions that have impeded productive activities.
In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N52,255,809.62 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2021 which recorded aggregate GDP of N45,113,448.06 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 15.83%.
The nominal GDP growth rate in Q3 2022 was higher relative to the 15.41% growth recorded in the third quarter of 2021 and higher compared to the 15.03% growth recorded in the preceding quarter.
Parsing through the GDP breakdown, the oil sector remains in the contractionary territory, declining by 22.67% y/y (Q2-22: -11.77% y/y). According to the NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.20mb/d in Q3-22, 23.6% y/y lower than in Q3-21 (1.57mb/d). As a result, the oil sector contributed 5.66% to the total GDP (Q2-22: 6.33%) during the review period.
On the other hand, the non-oil sector maintained its positive growth path, albeit lower than the previous quarter, rising by 4.27% y/y in Q3-22 (Q2-22: +4.77% y/y). As a result, the non-oil sector contributed 94.34% to the total GDP (vs 93.67% in Q2-22).
This sector was driven in the third quarter of 2022 mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunication); Trade; Transportation (Road Transport); Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Agriculture (Crop Production) and Real Estate, accounting for positive GDP growth.
In real terms, the non-Oil sector contributed 94.34% to the nation’s GDP in the third quarter of 2022, higher than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2021 which was 92.51% and higher than the second quarter of 2022 recorded as 93.67%.
Decomposing the GDP on a sectoral basis: Agriculture grew by 1.34% y/y (Q2-22: +1.20% y/y); Industries contracted by 8.00% y/y compared to a decline of 2.30% y/y in Q2-22; while Services grew by 7.01% y/y (Q2-22: +6.70% y/y).
In terms of contribution, services, agriculture, and industries, respectively, accounted for 51.96%, 29.67%, and 18.37% of overall output growth.
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