WED, MAY 24 2023-theGBJournal |The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Nigeria’s GDP numbers for Q1-23 today, with real GDP growing slowly by 2.31% y/y (Q4-22: +3.52% y/y).
The growth rate is in contrast from the 3.11% reported in Q1-2022, and 3.52% in Q4-2022. NBS attributes the drop in growth to the adverse effects of the cash crunch experienced during the quarter.
The growth outturn is 42bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (+1.89% y/y) and 54bps lower than Bloomberg’s median consensus (+2.85% y/y) estimate.
According to the NBS, the performance of the GDP in the first quarter of 2023 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 4.35% and contributed 57.29% to the aggregate GDP.
The agriculture sector grew by -0.90%, lower than the growth of 3.16% recorded in the first quarter of 2022.
Although the growth of the industry sector improved to 0.31% relative to – 6.81% recorded in the first quarter of 2022, agriculture, and the industry sectors contributed less to the aggregate GDP in the quarter under review compared to the first quarter of 2022.
A cursory examination of the breakdown of GDP figures showed that the oil sector declined at a slower pace, contracting by 4.21% y/y (Q4-22: -13.38% y/y).
According to the NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.51 mb/d in Q1-23, 1.3% y/y higher than Q1-22 (1.49 mb/d). As a result, the oil sector contributed 6.21% to the total GDP (Q4-22: 4.34%) during the review period.
Elsewhere, the non-oil sector maintained its positive growth path but grew moderately by 2.77% y/y in Q1-23 (Q4-22: +4.44% y/y) – the lowest print since Q1-21 (+0.79% y/y). The non-oil sector contributed 93.79% to total GDP (vs 93.37% and 95.66% in Q1-22 and Q4-22, respectively).
Analysing the GDP on a sectoral basis: Agriculture contracted by 0.90% y/y (Q4-22: +2.05% y/y); Industries rose by 0.31% y/y compared to a decline of 0.94% y/y in Q4-22; while Services grew by 4.35% y/y (Q4-22: +5.69% y/y).
Meanwhile, in the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N51,242,151.21 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2022 which recorded aggregate GDP of N45,317,823.33 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 13.07%.
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