Nigeria’s food import bill may soar as agricultural activities in 2016 have been predicted to experience significant decline. This follows the disclosure by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) that most parts of the country will experience less than normal volume, delayed, and early cessation of rainfall compared with previous years.
While the government’s efforts to boost food supply by 20 million metric tons from 2011 to 2015 have seen the country’s food import bill drop by more than half to $5 billion from $11 billion two years earlier, a drop in agriculture output is likely to set this back.
The prediction of lesser rainfalls, hotter days, warm nights and heat waves this year is likely to reduce the contribution of the agric sector to the country’s GDP by playing a leading role in the diversification process.
Extreme weather conditions are likely to affect not only the outcome of this year’s planting season, but also government’s plans to stop food importation, which has been valued at over N1 trillion annually, or at least reduce it to the barest minimum.
“This is a sign of climate change. The dryness of the weather currently will affect the quality of crops and the pricing,” says Desmond Majekodunmi, an environmentalist, as “most farmers don’t have alternatives apart from rainfall.”
According to NIMET, the rainfall pattern for 2016 may pose a great risk to farmers in the areas that will be most affected, urging concerned government ministries to carefully manage the situation.
“Our key message today is that most parts of Nigeria are likely to experience delayed onset, early cessation and less-than-normal rainfall amounts as well as dry spells. These are risk factors for farmers in the affected areas and must be carefully managed,” says Anthony Anuforom, director-general of NIMET, at a recent presentation in Abuja.
The prediction indicated that late onset and early cessation of rainfall in and around Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno and Adamawa states was likely to create water stress leading to reduction in production tonnage.
According to the prediction, farmers and agriculturists are advised to heed this important item in the 2016 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction and should supplement with irrigation to enhance crop development.
Abiodun Olorundenro, CEO, Green Vine Farms said that proactive measures were already being taken to cushion the anticipated effects of reduced rainfall, saying he intended farming with irrigation as a backup plan to cushion the effect of the dry weather on his crops.
Oludenro also noted: “A lot of farmers have not started farming yet. Most of them are still preparing their land for the farming season. The current hot weather might delay planting because we are looking at the patterns before planting.”
The agricultural sector used to be the dominant contributor to Nigeria’s GDP with contributions as much as 40 percent, but that has been diluted as other sectors such as finance services, construction, entertainment etc. have braced up their contribution to the economy.
The agricultural sector contributed 24.2 percent to GDP in real terms, according to the latest GDP report.
