WED. 22 FEB, 2023-theGBJournal| The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released Nigeria’s GDP numbers for Q4-22, showing domestic economic activities growing by 3.52% y/y (Q3-22: +2.25% y/y | Q4-21: +3.98% y/y).
For 2022FY, real GDP grew by 3.10% (2021FY: +3.40%). The growth outturn outperformed Cordros’ estimate (+2.72% y/y), owing to the more than expected growth in the non-oil sector, and 102bps higher than Bloomberg’s median consensus (+2.50% y/y) estimate.
A cursory examination of the breakdown of GDP figures showed that the oil sector contracted by 13.38% y/y (Q1-22: -22.67% y/y). According to the NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.34mb/d in Q4-22, 11.67% higher than Q3-22 (1.20mb/d). As a result, the oil sector contributed 4.34% to the total GDP (Q3-22: 5.66%) during the review period.
Elsewhere, the non-oil sector grew by 4.44% y/y in Q4-22 (vs 4.27% in Q3-22). The non-oil sector contributed 95.66% to total GDP (vs 94.81% and 94.34% in Q4-21 and Q3-22, respectively).
Analysing the breakdown of three of the most significant components of the GDP: Agriculture grew stronger by 2.05% y/y (vs +1.34% y/y in Q3-22); Industries contracted by 0.94% y/y (vs -8.00% y/y in Q3-22); while Services grew by 5.69% (vs +7.01% y/y in Q3-22).
In terms of contribution, Services, Agriculture, and Industries, respectively, accounted for 55.40%, 25.58%, and 19.02% of overall output.
In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N56,757,889.95 million in nominal terms.
This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 which recorded aggregate GDP of N49,276,018.23 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 15.18%.
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