SAT MAY 17 2025-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) rose by 5.0% m/m to 1.68 mb/d in April (March: 1.60 mb/d), after two consecutive months of decline, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The increase primarily reflects the pickup in production in the Forcados (+38.1% m/m) and Qua Iboe (+22.2% m/m) terminals, after sharp declines in March, supported by improving investment by Seplat Energy and Renaissance Africa Energy who took operatorship of the terminals after acquisition.
Meanwhile, the Brass (-33.2% m/m), Odudu (-8.9% m/m), Bonny (-3.2% m/m), Agbami (-3.0% m/m), Escravos (-2.4% m/m) and Tulja – Okwuibome (-2.1% m/m) terminals recorded declines.
Looking ahead, we expect the combination of improved security measures and a gradual increase in sector investments to sustain production above 2024 levels.
However, pipeline security concerns continue to pose a downside risk to near-term output. Thus, we maintain our average crude oil production estimate (including condensate) at 1.68 mb/d in 2025E (FG target: 2.06 mb/d).
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