SAT AUG 30 2025-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) increased for the second consecutive month, rising modestly by 0.9% m/m to 1.71 mb/d in July (June: 1.70 mb/d), its highest level since January 2025, according to data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The marginal uptick was supported by higher output from key terminals including Brass (+27.0% m/m), Bonny (+12.7% m/m), Agbami (+12.4% m/m), Escravos (+7.2% m/m), Bonga (+4.3% m/m), Odudu (+3.1% m/m), Tulja – Okwuibome (+2.8% m/m) and Forcados (+2.2% m/m), while production from the Qua Iboe (-10.6% m/m) terminal declined.
We attribute the improvement to enhanced pipeline surveillance under the Federal Government’s production recovery efforts, alongside a gradual rebound in upstream investment.
According to analysts at Cordros Research, output sustainability will hinge on security effectiveness and timely upstream project delivery, as Nigeria targets consistent OPEC+ compliance and higher FX inflows.
Cordros expects improved security and gradual investment recovery to support average production above 1.60 mb/d, maintaining our 2025FY forecast at 1.70 mb/d — below the Federal Government’s 2.06 mb/d target.
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