SAT OCT 19 2024-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) declined by 1.7% m/m to 1.54 mb/d in September (August: 1.57 mb/d) after five consecutive months of increase, according to data by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The decrease is attribute the decline in the period to lower production volume recorded across the Forcados (-19.0% m/m), Akpo (-11.8% m/m) Qua Iboe (-7.8% m/m), Odudu (-4.7% m/m) and Escravos (-3.5% m/m) production terminals, while the Brass (+18.8% m/m), Bonny (+11.3% m/m) and Agbami (+2.5% m/m) terminals recorded increases.
Overall crude oil production remains below pre-COVID levels (Q1-20 average: 2.14 mb/d) due to the lingering effects of insecurity, infrastructure decay as well as low investment in the sector exacerbated by the exit of international oil companies (IOCs) and unresolved issues regarding the approval of oil asset transfers.
While progress is still underway as regards the fight against crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, we believe that challenges plaguing the sector still pose downside risks to crude oil production in the near term. Thus, we maintain our average crude oil production estimate (including condensate) at 1.52 mb/d in 2024E (FGN budget: 1.78 mb/d).
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