14 JULY 2016-Positive activity in the food sub-index and core sub-index is expected to brighten inflation mood for June 2016 and analysts are convinced inflation will descend to 15.4% from 15.6% reached in May 2016.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is scheduled to release the inflation figure for June 2016 today (14 July 2016), based on the Data Release Calendar available on the Bureau’s website.
Analysts at Access Bank Nigeria Plc, using Nigeria inflation rate forecast methodology which adopts an a autoregressive analysis of past prices and assumptions used by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its computation of monthly composite consumer price index (CCPI), reckon that the slowdown in the pace of advance in the food sub-index would be driven by decline in the prices of food items such as rice, tomatoes, and vegetable oil on the back of availability of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) which may have aided transportation and distribution of these items.
The core index should also descend marginally due to slight change in consumer behavior witnessed during the review period towards imported goods.
According to them, weak demand for imported items is expected in June as higher prices in the previous month may have caused cutbacks in consumption spending.
The inflation numbers began climbing rapidly from November 2015 from 9.5% triggered mainly by uncertainty in the foreign exchange market and fuel scarcity which drove prices to unprecedented levels.
On the back of the confusion that followed analysts had projected inflation rate at 18.20 % by the end of the quarter under review and 19.71 % by the end of the year.
