FRI, SEPT 08 2023-theGBJournal |The cost of investing in climate mitigation measures is significantly lower than the expense associated with repairing the damages caused by climate change, according to the results of a recently completed EU-funded research project.
Results of the Horizon 2020 project Open ENTRANCE show that for every 100 euros spent on climate initiatives, Europe stands to save 500 euros in potential damages, assuming the rest of the world also sufficiently limit their greenhouse gas emissions.
The latest UN Climate Summit, in Sharm el-Sheik, reaffirmed the commitment to limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Reaching this target would require European measures that are even more ambitious than the current plan of reaching climate neutrality in 2050.
Project results show that meeting the 1.5-degree target would cost Europe only 5% more than merely limiting warming to 2 degrees. Analyses also reveal that these investments would not compromise welfare.
“These results show that it pays off to invest in mitigation,” says research group lead Dr. Konstantin Löffler from TU Berlin who had a central role in the modelling activities.
The project came to its conclusions after an in-depth analysis of the entire European energy system, including power generation, heating, transport, and industrial energy use. The analysis was carried out with energy modelling tools, on a country-by-country basis to determine the most cost-effective approach for the entire continent.
The main finding is the immediate need for substantial measures: nearly all emissions from the energy system need to be eliminated by 2040 to hit the 1.5-degree target. Europe’s power system would have to be emission-free by 2035, necessitating a significant increase in renewable energy production and the phasing out of fossil-based power. Extra power will come mostly from wind and solar, used in conjunction with energy storage systems and other flexibility measures. Adjustments in energy consumption patterns will also be crucial.
Other technologies will come into play. By 2035, at least half of the heating requirements in buildings should be met by heat pumps (the latest numbers show this proportion is just 14% in the EU). At least half of all cars will have to be electric by 2030.
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