MON, AUG 17 2020-theG&BJournal– Nigeria’s headline inflation expanded by 26bps to 12.82% y-on-y in July 2020 (June 12.56%), the highest since March 2018.
The increase which is driven mainly by food inflation, is 0.26 percent points higher than the rate recorded in June 2020 (12.56) percent.
The inflation data published today by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), shows headline index increased by 1.25 percent in July 2020 (the slowest pace of price growth since March 2020). The growth is 0.04 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in June 2020 (1.21) percent.
According to the NBS, the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending July 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 12.05 percent, representing a 0.15 percent point increase from 11.90 percent recorded in June 2020.
Food inflation rose by 30bps to 15.48% y/y in the period under review as against 15.18 percent in June 2020. The rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Meat, Fruits, Oils and fats, and Fish.
Compared to June 2020, food inflation expanded by 4bps, to 1.52% m/m.
Analysts at Cordros Research said they believe the seasonality effect typically associated with the onset of the planting season, as well as flooding in some parts of the country must have negatively influenced the food basket.
On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.52 percent in July 2020, up by 0.04 percent points from 1.48 percent recorded in June 2020.
The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending July 2020 over the previous twelve-month average was 14.63 percent, 0.17 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in June 2020 (14.46) percent.
Core inflation was down by 3bps to 10.10% y/y when compared with 10.13 percent recorded in June 2020. On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.75 percent in July 2020. This was down by 0.11 percent when compared with 0.86 percent recorded in June 2020.
Pressures were most significant in the prices of Medical services, Passenger transport by road, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Paramedical services and Vehicle spare parts.
All items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Bauchi (16.10%), Kogi (15.90%) and Sokoto and Plateau (15.20%), while Lagos (10.70%), Adamawa (10.60%) and Kwara (10.50%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.
On month on month basis however, July 2020 all items inflation was highest in Kogi (2.85%), Zamfara (2.44%) and Yobe (2.35%), while Ondo (0.67%), Adamawa (0.63%) and Ogun and Imo (0.62%) recorded the slowest rise in headline month on month inflation.
In July 2020, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kogi (20.09%), Sokoto (19.28%) and Plateau (18.05%), while Adamawa (13.37%), Abia (13.33%) and Lagos (13.13%) recorded the slowest rise.
On month on month basis however, July 2020 food inflation was highest in Zamfara (3.40%), Kogi (3.32%) and Yobe (3.00%), while Niger and Ogun (0.44%), Lagos (0.41%) with Adamawa recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).
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