…ranks Nigeria 33rd in the list of Africa’s best governed countries
MON, OCTOBER 29 2018-theG&BJournal-The 2018 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), ranks Nigeria 33rd in the list of best governed countries in Africa scoring 47.9% but with the rate of improvement increasing over the last 10 years. The governance ranking is the 12th since it was launched in 2007. And the 12th Index shows that governance on the continent, on average, is slowly improving.
The report shows that Nigeria also is among countries that managed to accelerate the pace of improvement in the last five years like its peers from fifteen countries out of the 34 who register progress in Overall Governance over the last decade.
Among those, Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco, and Kenya display the most impressive progression, stepping up from 41st, 25th and 19th to 22nd, 15th and 11th ranks over the past decade.
These countries are home to almost half of Africa’s population (48.7%). The speed of progression in some of these countries is notable. Kenya (19th to 11th), Morocco (25Th to 15th), and Côte d’Ivoire (41st to 22nd) have shown particularly large moves in terms of ranking between 2008 and 2017.
The irony for Nigeria is that it is has not been able to translate these improvements into sustainable economic opportunities for the citizens, according the Index report. In 2017, four of the ten countries with the highest GDP on the continent score below the African average score for Sustainable Economic Opportunity and sit in the lower half of the rankings: Algeria, Angola, Nigeria and Sudan. Meanwhile, Cabo Verde and Seychelles have the 6th and 5th smallest economies on the continent yet have the 6th and 5th highest scores in Sustainable Economic Opportunity.
The lack of substantial progress in Sustainable Economic Opportunity is mainly driven by a sizeable deterioration in Business Environment (-4.9). In a context where the working age population (15-64) on the continent is expected to grow by +27.9% over the next ten years, Africa’s declining Business Environment is worrying, the report noted.
According to the report, on average on the continent, improvements in indicators related to Health and Infrastructure stand out. There are also recent and welcome improvements in Rule of Law and Transparency & Accountability, even if scores in the latter are still low.
Mo Ibrahim, Founder and Chair of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation (MIF), said the continent is faced with unprecedented demographic growth. Key governance areas are not progressing fast enough to keep up with rising demands, and more specifically to answer the growing expectations of Africa’s youth, who are now forming the majority of our continent, and still expected to rise by almost 20% in the next decade.
He warned that education scores have fallen in half of the 54 African countries over the last five years. Progress in Participation & Human Rights is undermined by a closing of the civil and political space. While Africa’s combined GDP has increased by almost 40% over the last decade, average progress in sustainable economic opportunity has been almost null for Africa’s citizens.
‘’This is a huge missed opportunity. It could become a recipe for disaster. With the expected population growth, Africa stands at a tipping point, and the next years will be crucial,’’ Ibrahim noted.
The Index results confirm that Rule of Law and Transparency & Accountability are key to progress in governance, and strongly related to improving economic opportunities. And noted that recent progress here is encouraging but needs to be sustained and strengthened.
Ibrahim said that Governance must be citizen-centred. The best performing countries are also those that provide their citizens’ rights and welfare and whose governments are accountable to their citizens.
‘’In that challenging context, I hope this Index and its findings can continue to be a useful tool to help strengthen African governance.’’
According to Index report, overall Governance in Africa remains, on average, on an upward trajectory but over the last decade has proven irregular. In 2017 the continent reached its highest governance score of the last ten years (2008-2017), 49.9 (out of 100.0), an improvement of +1.0 point from 2008.
The report painted a contrast of the improvement however, that many economists have worried about particularly at the height of the oil price collapse. It said the in many other countries momentum continues to falter.
‘’Over the last five years, more than half (19) of the 34 countries that have improved their Overall Governance performance over the last decade are either losing momentum, with the rate of progress slowing, or have even begun to register a recent downturn.’’
Reasons differ between countries. Tunisia for example, has failed to keep up the momentum in Participation & Human Rights, whilst Ethiopia’s sharp declines in Sustainable Economic Opportunity are the main driving factor of the country’s recent downturn in Overall Governance.
The Index Findings
Meanwhile, 18 countries – one out of three countries on the continent – display a worse governance score in 2017 than ten years ago. Even if some of these countries have begun to turn things around, the majority (12) fail to do so. Some of these (Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Libya) are among the ten lowest scoring countries in terms of Overall Governance in 2017, with decline worsening over the last five years. Rapidly declining Safety & Rule of Law is a common factor in these countries. However, these alarming trends do not only concern low scoring countries. Three of the still top five scoring countries – Mauritius (-0.7), Cabo Verde (-0.8) and Botswana (-3.7) – also register over the decade a decline which worsens over the last five years.
While in 2017 the range between the highest (Mauritius) and lowest (Somalia) governance scores is the smallest it has been in ten years, increasing divergence appears between country scores. In the earlier years of the last decade, countries were concentrated around the African average score, but over the last ten years have dispersed. Within the last three years, 18 countries displayed their worst overall governance performance in a decade, and 28 achieved their best in the same period, highlighting the diverging trends on the continent.
Of the 14 sub-categories of governance that compose the IIAG, only three have seen large African average decline over the decade: Personal Safety (-6.1), Business Environment (-4.9) and National Security (-4.4).
Concerningly however, progress in key areas is faltering. Looking at the last five years of the decade, four new sub-categories have begun to decline: Rights, Public Management, Rural Sector and Education. As a result, between 2013 and 2017, half of the IIAG’s 14 sub-categories are declining Africa’s population has increased by +26.0% over the last ten years. While 60.0% of Africa’s 1.25 billion people were under the age of 25 in 2017, the average score for Education in 2017 fell to 44.5 (out of 100.0), a decline of -0.7 points from its peak score five years ago. Even if the African average score for Education shows improvement over the decade, concerning warning signs have recently appeared. Though enrolment levels are higher, deterioration is driven by average decline over the decade in the indicators Satisfaction with Education Provision (-9.0) and Education Quality (-3.3) and worsened by the downturn recently appearing in Alignment of Education with Market Needs which has deteriorated by -0.8 over the last five years. The quality of education is currently not sufficient to meet the growing demand for education and jobs. Half the continent’s countries (27) registered deteriorated Education scores in the last five years, meaning that for over half of Africa’s citizens (51.5%) education outcomes are worsening with how governments are improving basic health services.
Whilst there has been success in achieving many of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) alongside international partners, the gap between citizens’ perceptions of Health and the large improvements in indicators such as those mentioned may point to a lack of sufficient focus on issues such as health infrastructure and human capacity, while available indicators mainly focus on measuring improvement of the past MDG targets.
More is expected from governments to increase the socio-economic integration of the growing youth population. The majority of countries have either failed to improve or even deteriorated in the Promotion of Socio-economic Integration of Youth indicator, resulting in an African average decline of -2.3 points in the last ten years. This measure, as well as Social Inclusion – one of Africa’s five worst performing indicators (23.5) on average and showing a decline of -3.6 over the last ten years – holds back progress in the Welfare sub-category, despite some positive results with large gains in absence of lived poverty (+6.9) and welfare policies & services (+6.
Participation & Human Rights (+2.9) has undoubtedly improved over the last ten years, driven by strong progress in Participation and Gender. The African average score for Gender (+4.5) in particular has gone from strength to strength improving each year since 2008. Participation (+3.5) is one of the most improved sub-categories of the IIAG driven by the Democratic Elections (+6.1) indicator. Progress has been limited however by shrinking civil society space. The African average score for the indicator Civil Society Participation (-0.4) has declined since 2008 and, in the Rights sub-category, the slight progress made over the last ten years (+0.6) is threatened by worsening trends in Freedom of Association & Assembly(-5.5), Civil Rights & Liberties (-4.0) and Freedom of Expression (-3.4).
