SAT 22 JAN, 2022-theGBJournal- Nigeria’s FX reserve declined by USD102.94 million to USD40.38 billion (19th January 2022) on the back of CBN’s continued support of the naira at the official channels.
Meanwhile, the naira appreciated by 0.1% w/w to NGN416.00/USD at the I&E window (IEW) but depreciated by 0.3% to NGN573.00/USD at the parallel market. In the Forwards market, the naira was unchanged at the 1-month (NGN 417.07/USD) and 3-month (NGN422.89/USD) contracts but appreciated at the 6-month (+0.1% to NGN431.80/USD) and 1-year (+0.6% to NGN444.24/USD) contracts.
In our opinion, the CBN has enough supply to support the FX market over the short term, given inflows from the recently issued Eurobond and the IMF’s SDR. However, foreign inflows are paramount for sustained FX liquidity over the medium term, in line with our expectation that accretion to the reserves will be weak given that crude oil production levels remain quite low.
Thus, FPIs which have historically supported supply levels in the IEW (53.8% of FX inflows to the IEW in 2019FY) will be needed to sustain FX liquidity levels. Hence, we think (1) further adjustments in the NGN/USD peg closer to its fair value and (2) flexibility in the exchange rate would be significant in attracting foreign inflows back to the market.
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