THUR MAR 19 2026-theGBJournal| According to data from The Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC), disbursements to the three tiers of government fell by 3.8% m/m to N1.89 trillion in February (January: N1.97 trillion), reflecting lower revenues generated in the prior month.
The decline was primarily driven by weaker receipts from Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Hydrocarbon Tax (HT), Companies Income Tax (CIT)/CGT, Stamp Duties (SDT), and Value Added Tax (VAT), which more than offset increases in Oil and Gas Royalty, Excise Duty, Import Duty, and CET Levies.
Analysts at Cordros Research estimate that the amount disbursed is 84.9% of the total gross revenue (N2.23 trillion) generated in the previous month, with the remaining balance allocated to transfers, interventions, and refunds (N259.08 billion), as well as the cost of collection (N77.30 billion).
Based on the stipulated sharing revenue formula, the FGN received N675.09 billion (January: N653.50 billion), State Governments received N651.53 billion (January: NGN706.47 billion), Local Governments received N456.46 billion (January: N513.27 billion), while oil producing states received an additional NGN110.95 billion (January: N96.08 billion) as derivation (13.0% of mineral revenue).
In the near term, Cordros expect FAAC revenues to strengthen, supported by higher oil-related receipts amid firmer crude oil prices (2026E: USD78.00/bbl vs 2025FY: USD68.19/bbl) and higher production (2026E: 1.75 mbpd vs 2025FY: 1.64 mbpd).
This outlook is further supported by the full remittance of profits from Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) by NNPCL, in line with the new policy mandate (compared to the previous 40.0% remittance threshold) alongside reduced collection costs.
Additionally, CIT collections are expected to remain resilient, supported by gradual improvements in macroeconomic conditions.
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