SUN MARCH 16 2025-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) declined by 3.8% m/m to 1.67 mb/d in February (January: 1.74 mb/d), according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) latest data.
Notably, declines were recorded across all the producing terminals, with the Bonny (-21.8% y/y) terminal recording the most significant decline.
The production downturn at Bonny terminal is attributed to the recently concluded maintenance work on the Trans Niger pipeline.
At the same time, declines were witnessed across the Brass (-16.6%), Tulja – Okwuibome (-16.0%), Escravos (-13.5% m/m), Forcados (-12.5%), Odudu (-11.3%) Bonga (-8.2 m/m) and Qua Iboe (-7.6% m/m) terminals.
Cordros Research analysts say they believe output will likely remain below the FG’s target (2.06 mb/d) in the short term, primarily weighed by suboptimal capital investments in the sector.
”Overall, we maintain our average oil production estimate (including condensate) at 1.68 mb/d in 2025E (2024FY: 1.56 mb/d),” Cordros added.
Looking ahead, we expect the combination of improved security measures and a gradual increase in sector investments to sustain production above the 1.60 mb/d mark (including condensates) in the medium term.
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