MON, MARCH 5 2018-theG&BJournal- Businesses face a year of considerable uncertainty as major political parties and actors in the country embark on what is shaping up to be a feisty fight for control of the central government in Abuja, Nigeria, next year, according to Control Risks, the global risk consultancy firm.
Speaking to theG&BJournal on the eve of the launch of firms 2018 Global Risk Map campaign in Lagos , Nigeria, last week, the firms top executives including Sebastian Willis Fleming, chief operating officer, Europe and Africa, Tom Griffin, senior partner for West Africa and Timothy Cox, Director, West Africa, said our messaging to businesses, across all sectors and across all parts of Nigeria is that we don’t know how the election period is going to shape up, but what we do know is that disruption is certain.
“There will be considerable disruption. And so our advise to businesses is to recognise this fact and to build on the fact that uncertainty is inevitable,” Tom Griffin said echoing the sentiment of his firm.
Control Risks’ warning have been rooted on how the split between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressive Congress (APC) will play out and on the huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the main actors and individuals that will be involved in the election period.
Control Risks advised however, that smart businesses should be careful and be able to deal effectively with the disruptions that will be caused by the election period.
”However this actually plays out in real terms, businesses should be well positioned to capitalise on the opportunities.”
The election cycle disruptions in Nigeria are central to Control Risks forecast. Indeed, it is very much the case in Nigeria that disruption in business environment is the norm, according to Control Risks.
”If you look back to the last presidential term, we saw huge disruption caused by Boko Haram in the North East and much of the North that Boko Haram had controlled since late 2014.
In 2015, the election cycle was underscored by the Ebola outbreak and a currency disruption that had huge impact on businesses across all sectors. There was also the impact of flooding in the middle Belt. So it sometimes feels like the country stumbles from one crisis to another and yet the business community continues to do very well and again our messaging is one of positivity.”
Added to this, is the implication for the country’s security environment and from their perspective, the security environment in Nigeria is going to be shaped by the upcoming general election scheduled next year.
According to them, the leadership of the political parties and whoever is elected president will have a big impact on the overall risk environment in Nigeria. That is inevitable.
“And it is inevitable because if you look at the functional political drivers in Nigeria, geographically they are segregated. We have long standing issues in the North East which is not going to go away certainly in this presidential cycle and it will surely walk its way into the next presidential cycle. So Boko Haram will continue to have an impact and the consequences of Boko Haram campaign has been the large scale displacement of people.”
Every year Control Risks publishes the Risk Map, which is the global take on the geopolitical events including corruption and considering operational risk aspects all over the world. This is a report published in China, Nigeria and the US as well and as part of that project they run an annual Risk Map event.
