By Teldah Mawarire and Ine van Severen
FRI, OCT 05 2018-theG&BJournal- For nations in crisis, free and fair elections usually can bring much-needed reprieve. Voting offers hope and chance to end strife and conflict. We’ve seen this in recent times in countries like The Gambia, The Maldives and Malaysia, where increasingly autocratic presidents were booted out of office at the ballot box by fed-up voters.
The voting process too can bring a period of peace and even a cease fire in open-conflict situations. But there are times when elections are bad news – bringing not relief for those in humanitarian or political crisis but rather more trouble for citizens in already difficult situations, adding to the intensity of their suffering. Such is the case for Cameroonians living in the country’s English-speaking regions as they prepare to go to the polls on October 7.
Indications are that Paul Biya, Cameroon’s 85-year-old president who has been in power since 1982, and his ruling Cameroon Peoples’ Democratic Movement (CPDM) will claim victory yet again. Vote rigging, paying off opponents, voter disenfranchisement in opposition strongholds and voter apathy have all contributed to his winning the four elections held since the country’s first multiparty vote 26 years ago. None of these conditions have changed for this election. In fact, the voting environment has become even more toxic with the deepening crisis, which has made it even easier for Biya-Africa’s second longest serving head of state-to skew the election in his favour.
In the English-speaking North West and South West regions, which account for about 20% of Cameroon’s population of 25 million, the poll will contribute to a nightmare situation that has been intensifying over the past two years. What began as peaceful protests by lawyers and teachers against institutionalised discrimination by the Francophone government in late 2016, grew into a full blown human rights and humanitarian crisis when the state responded with a brutal crackdown in the Anglophone regions giving birth to a separatist movement that launched an armed insurgency earlier this year.
The crackdown by security forces has seen large scale human rights violations committed against English-speaking Cameroonians, including the arrest and imprisonment of protest leaders, a months-long internet shutdown, the militarisation of communities, and the killing, arrest, detention and assault of protesters, residents and journalists believed to be supporting anti-government campaigns. Many have been charged with “terrorism” and “secession” in military courts. The prisons are being filled with Anglophones arrested by the military, whether they support calls for independence or not. According to the Centre for Human Rights and Democracy in Africa (CDHRA), a human rights organisation based in the South West city of Buea, more than 4,110,00 Anglophones have been internally displaced, and some 122 villages burnt by the military.
The ongoing human rights abuses have led to Cameroon being added to the Watch List of countries that have seen an alarming escalation in serious threats to fundamental freedoms in recent months. The CIVICUS Monitor, an online platform that tracks threat to civil society in countries around the globe, has rated the space for civil society in Cameroon as ‘’repressed’.
In these dire conditions, it appears the upcoming elections can only bring further conflict for people in the Anglophone regions, if anything. Armed secessionist groups have vowed to prevent elections taking place in these regions and to stop candidates from campaigning in these regions. The ruling CPDM party has so far been able to campaign in the North West under very tight security, with campaigners only able to reach a limited number of voters.
Biya and his government is keen to demonstrate to the international community that voting took place across the country. They desperately need the stamp of legitimacy that comes with electoral wins. With a win, they can easily bolster the propaganda that the government is popular and only a few insurgents are unhappy with their rule.
To secure an electoral win, the government has set up polling stations in military barracks. Already more than half the population of the North West and South West regions have reportedly fled the violence. Any remaining voters are going to find it difficult to trust the military by risking voting in the barracks of a dreaded military with a reputation of shooting unarmed civilians on sight or arresting them. Voter apathy is at a high with many perceiving it to be of little consequence anyway. Amidst the violence and the reality that it is impossible to hold free and fair elections under these circumstances, the European Union (EU) says it will not monitor the elections for the first time since 1997 even though it officially cites a lack of adequate resources as the main reason.
There are a number of scenarios that could play out during the poll that may have a lasting impact on the security in the Anglophone regions and on the future of Cameroon. The first is that there will be increased insecurity as separatist groups attempt to prevent voting, leading to more clashes with the military. Those brave enough to go to polling stations will do so in a highly militarised environment, meaning elections there will not be a true reflection of the will of the people.
Officially nine candidates are running for president. The presence of new, charismatic opposition leaders such as lawyer Akere Muna of the Now Movement, Joshua Osih, of the main opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF) party (both Anglophones) and Universe Party’s Cabral Libii may seem – at least on paper – that the ruling party will face stiffer competition that in previous elections. However, aside from the voting challenges, the failure of the political opposition to agree on a single candidate, to avoid splitting the opposition vote, works in Biya’s favour – virtually guaranteeing him a win and extending his 36 years in power officially until at least 2025. The implication here is a continuation of the government’s approach towards the Anglophone crisis – giving the military authority to continue its carnage in the regions. Armed groups will certainly react, and this means no immediate end in sight to the violence in those regions.
Elections will not resolve the human rights violations and the crisis facing Cameroon. If anything, it may lead to an increase in violence and a worsening of the humanitarian situation. What Cameroon needs right now are not elections but for a third, neutral and respected actor like the African Union to lead a process of dialogue between the government, armed groups, civil society, activists in the Diaspora to identify lasting solutions to the challenges Anglophones have faced more than five decades after the country’s independence.
Teldah Mawarire is a campaigns and advocacy officer with global civil society alliance, CIVICUS. |Ine van Severen is a policy research officer with CIVICUS.
