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OPEC sets 1,500 t/bd production estimate for Nigeria, cuts 2.2 million bpd in the first quarter of 2024

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FRI, DEC 01 2023-theGBJournal|Significant strides were made towards maintaining a stable and balanced oil market at the eventful 36th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) on Thursday.

A notable highlight was the warm welcome extended to HE Alexandre Silveira de Oliveira, Minister of Mines and Energy of the Federative Republic of Brazil, as Brazil announced its forthcoming inclusion into the OPEC+ Charter of Cooperation, effective from January 2024.

Emphasizing a steadfast commitment to the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), the Participating Countries reaffirmed their dedication to the framework established since its inception on December 10, 2016.

This commitment has been consistently endorsed in subsequent meetings, notably at the 35th OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on June 4, 2023, and further solidified through the Charter of Cooperation ratified on July 2, 2019.

The meeting addressed crucial aspects, including the completion of assessments by independent sources (IHS, Wood Mackenzie, and Rystad Energy) on the projected production levels for Angola, Congo, and Nigeria in 2024.

The assessments concluded production estimates at 1,110 t/bd for Angola, 277 t/bd for Congo, and 1,500 t/bd for Nigeria, in alignment with prior decisions set forth during the 35th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting.

Looking ahead, the 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled to take place on June 1, 2024, in Vienna.

In parallel, during the 187th meeting of the conference of OPEC members, crucial appointments were announced.

His Excellency Minister Mohammed Oun from Libya was appointed as the Chairman of the OPEC Board of Governors for the year 2024, accompanied by Ambassador Gabriel Aduda, OPEC Governor of Nigeria, who assumes the role of Alternate Chairman for the OPEC Board of Governors for the year 2024.

According to a top official of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Nigeria, ”the gathering decisively dispelled speculations of discord among OPEC countries regarding the acceptance of their 2024 quotas, culminating in a successful outcome that is expected to fortify market dynamics, fostering stability and sustainable growth within the industry.”

Meanwhile, oil markets were underwhelmed by the OPEC+ decision to cut 2.2 million bpd in the first quarter of 2024, with Brent crude erasing all its earlier gains and dropping back to $81 per barrel.

These additional voluntary cuts are announced by Saudi Arabia (1,000 thousand b/d); Iraq (223 thousand b/d); United Arab Emirates (163 thousand b/d); Kuwait (135 thousand b/d); Kazakhstan (82 thousand b/d); Algeria (51 thousand b/d); and Oman (42 thousand b/d) starting 1st of January until the end of March 2024.

OPEC said, ”The above will be in addition to the announced voluntary cut by the Russian Federation of 500 thousand barrels per day for the same period (starting 1st of January until the end of March 2024), which will be made from the average export levels of the months of May and June of 2023, and will consist of 300 thousand barrels a day of crude oil and 200 thousand barrels per day of refined products.”

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