THUR, JAN 16 2020-theG&BJournal- Deaths from terrorism are now 52 per cent lower than their peak in 2014. The fall in deaths has been largest in Iraq, Syria, and Nigeria, according to the latest Global Terrorism Index (GTI) from the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP).
According the GTI report, the global economic impact of terrorism in 2018 amounted to $33 billion in constant PPP terms, a decline of 38 per cent from its 2017 level.
‘’Compared to other forms of violence such as homicide, armed conflict, and military expenditure, terrorism is a small percentage of the total global cost of violence, which was equal to 14.1 trillion dollars in purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2018,’’GTI said.
The total number of deaths from terrorism declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2018, falling by 15.2 per cent to 15,952 deaths. Nine of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism improved.
‘’Despite the fall in total deaths, the number of countries affected by terrorism remains high,’’ GTI noted.
71 countries recorded at least one death from terrorism in 2018, the second highest number of countries since 2002.
Afghanistan had the largest deterioration, recording 7,379 deaths from terrorism, an increase of 59 per cent from the prior year, and is now at the bottom of the index. For the first time since 2003, Iraq was not the country most impacted by terrorism. The impact of terrorism improved in 98 countries, compared to 40 that deteriorated in the past year.
‘’ However, the overall impact of terrorism was still higher in 80 countries when compared to five years ago. Iraq and Somalia experienced the largest falls in deaths from terrorism, owing mainly to less activity from ISIL and Al-Shabaab respectively.
ISIL’s decline continued for the second successive year. Deaths attributed to the group declined by 69 per cent, and attacks declined 63 per cent.
‘’There has been a growing trend of increased female participation in terrorism, although still a small percentage of all attacks,’’ the report said.
Bombings and armed assaults have been the most common type of terrorist attack over the past two decades. Between 2002 and 2018, South Asia, MENA and sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 93 per cent of all deaths from terrorism. The largest number was recorded in MENA, with more than 93,700 fatalities.
The average country score in the MENA region improved for the third year in the row. South Asia has had the highest impact from terrorism since 2002, while Central America and the Caribbean region has had the lowest impact.
Between 1985 and 2018 there were 300 suicide attacks involving at least one female. These attacks killed over 3,000 people. The trend has intensified over the past five years, with the number of female suicide attacks increasing 450 per cent between 2013 and 2018. By contrast, male suicide attacks fell 47 per cent over the same period.
‘’Most of this increase can be attributed to Boko Haram, with nearly 80 per cent of all female suicide attacks in the last five years being carried out by the group. This tactic initially led to more lethal attacks, as female suicide bombers were able to evade detection by security forces more easily than male suicide bombers. However, security forces have adapted to this tactic, and as a result female suicide attacks are now less deadly than attacks carried out by their male counterparts.
The research also found that armed conflicts with high levels of terrorism tend to last longer and be more deadly. In conflicts where the primary rebel or insurgent group started as a terrorist group, the average length of the conflict was 33 years, compared to 17 years for conflicts where the insurgents did not start as terrorists.
‘’There is also a strong correlation between battle deaths and the number of terrorist attacks where the two increased or decreased in tandem. Terrorist attacks in conflict countries are also three times as lethal as terrorist attacks outside of conflict, and are much more likely to target police and the military. By contrast, terrorist attacks in non-conflict countries disproportionately target tourists, business, and the media.
‘’Incidents of far-right terrorism have been increasing in the West, particularly in Western Europe, North America, and Oceania. The total number of incidents have increased by 320 per cent over the past five years.
In 2018, total deaths attributed to far-right groups increased by 52 per cent to 26 deaths. To the end of September in 2019, 77 deaths have been attributed to far-right groups. Deaths have been increasing year on year for the past three years, from 11 deaths in 2017, 26 deaths in 2018, to 77 deaths by the end of September 2019.
However, far-right terrorism remains a small fraction of total terrorism worldwide. Even in the West, historically nationalist or separatist, Islamist, and far left terrorism has been much more common.’’
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