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Nigeria’s inflation cools as food prices retreat, but relief remains fragile

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Food prices remain substantially higher than a year ago, leaving lower-income households particularly exposed.
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THUR OCT 15 2026-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s inflation rate fell for a second consecutive month in September, offering fresh evidence that price pressures are easing, though the latest figures provide little assurance that households are emerging from the country’s prolonged cost-of-living crisis.

Headline inflation slowed to 14.63 per cent year on year from 15.39 per cent in August, while monthly consumer price growth almost stalled at 0.06 per cent, down from 0.71 per cent.

The sharp moderation suggests that the pace of price increases has weakened, but does not mean that the cost of living has returned to affordable levels.

The most striking development was in food prices, whose monthly index fell by 1.57 per cent after rising 1.02 per cent in August.

Declines across staples including rice, maize flour, onions, tomatoes and palm oil helped drive the reversal, providing a rare measure of relief in a country where food costs have been central to the inflation shock.

Yet the annual food inflation rate edged up to 19.59 per cent from 19.57 per cent, underscoring the distinction between a monthly price correction and a sustained reduction in the burden on consumers.

Food prices remain substantially higher than a year ago, leaving lower-income households particularly exposed.

Underlying pressures also warrant caution. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, eased to 12.95 per cent year on year from 13.29 per cent. But core prices rose 1.11 per cent month on month, reversing August’s 0.06 per cent decline.

The divergence suggests that the moderation in headline inflation has yet to translate into a broad-based retreat in monthly price pressures.

The figures present a mixed signal for policy makers. Slower headline inflation strengthens the case that monetary tightening and changing price dynamics are beginning to restrain inflation.

But the rebound in monthly core prices complicates the argument for another easing of monetary conditions.

X-@theGBJournal|email:gbj@govbusinessjournal.com|govandbusinessj@gmail.com

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