SAT JUNE 20 2026-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates, climbed to a 10-month high of 1.70 million barrels a day (mb/d) in May, extending a three-month recovery streak and bringing Africa’s largest producer closer to its OPEC production target as export terminal operations normalized and output disruptions eased.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed production increased from 1.66 mb/d in April, underscoring a gradual improvement in the country’s upstream sector after years of underperformance caused by pipeline vandalism, crude theft and operational outages.
The latest output level places Nigeria comfortably above its OPEC quota of 1.50 mb/d for crude oil excluding condensates, reinforcing the country’s position as one of the few members of the producers’ alliance with room to expand production.
Crude output has steadily recovered since the beginning of the year amid enhanced security around critical oil infrastructure, improved pipeline availability and reduced loading disruptions at key export terminals.
The increase was led by a sharp rebound in volumes from the Forcados terminal, where production surged 22.2% month-on-month to 8.99 million barrels, recovering from loading interruptions that constrained exports in March and April.
Additional gains were recorded across several major streams, with output from Qua Iboe rising 8.7%, Brass increasing 8.4%, Odudu climbing 5.3%, Tulja-Okwuibome advancing 3.8%, Bonny expanding 2.9% and Escravos adding 1.7%.
The broad-based improvement offset declines at the Anyala Madu and Akpo terminals, where production fell 13.8% and 13.6%, respectively.
The higher production from strategic export terminals has also helped Nigeria capitalize on renewed demand from Asian refiners and maintain export flows despite intermittent disruptions earlier in the year.
The increase comes against a backdrop of heightened volatility in global oil markets.
Brent crude prices have remained elevated around $80 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, concerns over potential supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and continuing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and global economic growth.
While stronger output provides support for Nigeria’s fiscal revenues and foreign exchange earnings, risks to the outlook persist.
In addition, uncertainty over OPEC+ supply policy and the possibility of increased output from competing producers may limit further upside in crude prices.
Nevertheless, the latest figures suggest Nigeria is gradually restoring lost production capacity, strengthening its ability to benefit from higher oil prices while improving its contribution to OPEC supply levels.
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