…Crude oil remained the dominant driver of external trade, accounting for N11.20 trillion, or 52.9%, of total exports during the quarter.
…India emerged as Nigeria’s largest export destination in the quarter, followed by France, the Netherlands, Spain and the United States.
TUE JUNE 09 2026-theGBJournal| Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026 as a sharp decline in imports more than offset modest export growth, underscoring the economy’s continued dependence on crude oil earnings despite rising non-oil shipments.
Data from Nigeria’s foreign trade statistics showed total exports rose 2.8% year-on-year to N21.17 trillion in the three months through March, while imports fell 18.2% to N13.62 trillion.
Compared with the previous quarter, exports increased 11.6%, whereas imports contracted 21.1%.
The resulting trade surplus of N7.55 trillion marked a significant improvement from the estimated N3.95 trillion surplus recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 and reflected a widening gap between export receipts and import demand.
The decline in imports points to a combination of weaker demand for foreign goods, tighter foreign-exchange conditions and increased domestic substitution in some sectors, while stronger export earnings were supported primarily by crude oil and gas shipments.
Crude oil remained the dominant driver of external trade, accounting for N11.20 trillion, or 52.9%, of total exports during the quarter.
Other major export items included natural gas, urea, petroleum gases and aviation fuel, highlighting the continued importance of hydrocarbons to Nigeria’s export earnings despite government efforts to diversify the economy.
The export performance suggests that while non-crude exports are gradually gaining traction, the country’s external position remains highly exposed to fluctuations in global energy prices and production volumes.
India emerged as Nigeria’s largest export destination in the quarter, followed by France, the Netherlands, Spain and the United States.
The ranking reflects sustained demand from Europe and Asia for Nigerian crude oil, liquefied natural gas and related energy products.
On the import side, China maintained its position as Nigeria’s biggest source of imported goods, ahead of the United States, India, Germany and the United Arab Emirates.
Nigeria’s import basket remained heavily concentrated in energy products, industrial inputs and machinery.
The most imported items were crude petroleum oils, gas oil, durum wheat, telecommunications and data transmission equipment, and used diesel-powered vehicles.
The continued importation of crude oil, despite Nigeria being Africa’s largest crude producer, underscores the country’s longstanding refining challenges, although recent investments in domestic refining capacity could gradually reduce dependence on imported petroleum products over time.
Trade with African countries remained strongly in Nigeria’s favour. Exports to the continent totaled N4.06 trillion, compared with imports of N654.94 billion, producing a regional trade surplus of approximately N3.41 trillion.
Togo was Nigeria’s largest African export market, receiving goods worth N1.08 trillion, followed by South Africa at N887.13 billion, Ivory Coast at N505.22 billion, Egypt at N363.18 billion and Senegal at N351.87 billion. Together, these countries accounted for more than three-quarters of Nigeria’s exports to Africa.
Within Africa, Nigeria’s biggest import partners were South Africa, Angola, Egypt, Morocco and Eswatini, reflecting growing intra-African trade flows under regional integration initiatives.
Analysts say the widening trade surplus represents a positive development for Nigeria’s external accounts and could provide support for foreign-exchange reserves and naira stability if sustained.
However, the composition of exports remains a key concern. More than half of export earnings continue to come from crude oil, leaving the economy vulnerable to volatility in international energy markets.
The steep fall in imports also warrants caution. While lower imports can improve the trade balance, a significant portion of Nigeria’s imports consists of industrial machinery, raw materials and capital goods essential for economic expansion.
Sustained import compression may therefore reflect subdued domestic demand and investment activity rather than a broad-based improvement in competitiveness.
For policymakers, the data reinforces the need to accelerate export diversification, deepen local refining and manufacturing capacity, and leverage regional trade opportunities to reduce the economy’s dependence on hydrocarbons as the primary source of foreign-exchange earnings.
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