TUE APRIL 14 2026-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s crude oil production recorded a modest rebound in March 2026, rising to 1.383 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 1.314 mb/d in February—an increase of about 69,000 bpd—according to direct communication cited in the latest report by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released Monday.
Despite the improvement, output remains below the country’s OPEC quota of 1.5 mb/d, underscoring the persistent challenges constraining the sector.
The marginal recovery comes against a backdrop of recurring operational setbacks, including intermittent terminal shutdowns and aging infrastructure, which continue to pose downside risks to sustained production growth.
Nigeria has struggled for years to consistently meet its OPEC allocation due to a mix of crude theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment, and technical inefficiencies—factors that have collectively limited output even amid favorable global oil prices.
Since the start of 2026, production levels have remained volatile, largely influenced by disruptions at key oil fields.
Notably, output from the offshore Bonga oil field was curtailed due to scheduled turnaround maintenance that began on February 1 and was expected to be completed by March 18.
Such maintenance activities, while necessary to sustain long-term capacity, often lead to short-term dips in output.
At the export terminal level, performance was mixed, with declines recorded across several major crude streams.
Production fell significantly recently at Forcados terminal (-21.9% month-on-month), Tulja-Okwuibome terminal (-21.1%), Escravos terminal (-11.0%), Odudu terminal (-4.3%), and Qua Iboe terminal (-3.5%).
These declines highlight ongoing logistical and operational bottlenecks within Nigeria’s oil evacuation infrastructure.
However, there are emerging positives. The commencement of operations at the Cawthorne Channel terminal—a floating storage and offloading (FSO) vessel commissioned in October 2025—has added an estimated 0.38 mb/d to total production capacity.
Industry stakeholders view this development as a step toward easing evacuation constraints and improving output reliability.
Looking ahead, analysts say Nigeria’s ability to meet and potentially exceed its OPEC quota will depend on sustained investment in upstream infrastructure, enhanced security around oil assets, and the successful execution of ongoing reforms aimed at boosting efficiency in the petroleum sector.
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