THUR FEB 12 2026-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s crude oil production fell 1.27% in January 2026 to 1.478 million barrel per day from 1.497 million barrel per day reported in December 2025, according to latest OPEC Monthly report published Wednesday.
This will be the sixth consecutive month that the country has failed to meet its production quota. The January figure represents about 80,000 barrel per day shortfall.
The drop highlights Nigeria’s struggle to deal with myriad of issues bedeviling the oil and gas sector, which includes crude theft, decayed infrastructure, operational inefficiencies as well as security challenges.
However, Nigeria retained its top spot as Africa’s biggest producer, ahead pf Libya, which recorded output of 1,304 million barrel per day during the period under review.
In the report, OPEC also assessed Nigeria’s economy, projecting that Nigeria’s economy will maintain a robust growth trajectory this year with easing inflationary pressures,
improved exchange rate stability, and a potentially gradual shift toward monetary easing supporting non-oil activity.
This comes after already robust growth in 2025, when the economy expanded by around estimated 4.1%, a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity.
Headline inflation has continued its downward trend, reflecting improved conditions in the foreign exchange market and the lagged effects of previous policy tightening, although the timing and magnitude of base effects present some risk to this trajectory.
Nigeria’s external balances remained relatively resilient, supported by declining refined petroleum imports and an enhanced role for the exchange rate as a shock absorber.
Inflation continued to decelerate in December, with headline CPI falling for nine straight months to 15.2%, y-o-y, following 17.3% in November and 19% in October. Despite this sustained disinflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria kept its policy rate unchanged at 27% in its last meeting, citing its commitment to securing low and stable inflation.
While preserving recent disinflation gains is important, the persistently high policy rate – implying real interest rates of around 12% – risks weighing on aggregate demand in the near term.
Consequently, the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI retracted to move below the expansionary level of 50 in January, standing at 49.8, following 53.5 in December, 53.6 in November and 54.0 in October.
Looking ahead, easing inflation, gradually improving financial conditions, and sustained momentum in the non-oil sector are expected to support moderate and balanced growth.
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