…Big declines seen in the Egha (-79.1% m/m), Agbami (-75.4% m/m), Brass (-2.3% m/m), and Tulja-okwuibome (-1.9% m/m), production terminals
SUN JAN 25 2026-theGBJournal| Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) declined by 3.4% m/m to 1.54mb/d in December (November: 1.60mb/d), marking its lowest level since November 2024, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) latest data.
The decline is attributed primarily to a sharper 24.9% m/m drop in condensate production to 0.12 mb/d (November: 0.16 mb/d), which accounted for the bulk of the overall decline, alongside a more modest 1.0% m/m fall in crude oil output to 1.42 mb/d (November: 1.44 mb/d).
Notably, the increases witnessed across the Qua Iboe (+27.0% m/m), Odudu (+4.3% m/m), Forcados (+1.8% m/m), Bonny (+1.5% m/m), Escravos (+1.2% m/m) and Bonga (+0.7% m/m) terminals were not enough to offset the declines in the Egha (-79.1% m/m), Agbami (-75.4% m/m), Brass (-2.3% m/m), and Tulja-okwuibome (-1.9% m/m), production terminals.
The average crude oil production (including condensates) for 2025FY stood at 1.64mb/d (2024 average: 1.55mb/d), falling short (-0.1mb/d) of Cordros’ estimate of 1.65mb/d and FGN target of 2.06mb/d (-0.42mb/d).
Cordros Research, says in a note to the G&BJournal they expect crude oil production to increase in the near term, underpinned by higher investment, the integration of new oil fields and evacuation routes, and improved security conditions.
However, intermittent terminal shutdowns, partly reflecting persistent infrastructure constraints, remain a key downside risk. Overall, we project average oil production of 1.80mb/d in 2026E.
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